Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and prediction
The Cincinnati Reds (44-40) continue their three-game interleague set with the Kansas City Royals (35-49) Tuesday at Kaufmann Stadium with Game 2's first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Reds vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincinnati took the first game of the series 6-2, and Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez keyed the victory with a 3-run home run in the top of the 7th inning.
Season series: Reds lead 1-0.
RHP Luis Castillo is Cincinnati's projected starter. Castillo is 3-10 with a 5.08 ERA (90 1/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 over 17 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Cincinnati's 5-4 victory over the San Diego Padres Thursday.
- vs. Royals on the current roster: 45 at-bats with a .311/.426/.444 slash line, 10/9 K/BB, 1 HR and 6 RBIs.
LHP Kris Bubic takes the mound for the Royals. Bubic is 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.51 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 across seven starts and seven relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 15-1, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 3 K Thursday at the Boston Red Sox.
- 2021 home splits: 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.34 WHIP and 1.6 K/BB rate over three starts and three bullpen outings.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team's money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you'll get up to $600 in free bets.Bet now!
Reds at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:24 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Royals +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-110) | Royals +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Reds 4, Royals 3
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight "lean" to the Royals (+140) because I like K.C.'s run line, and we are seeing an aggregated "reverse line movement" across major sportsbooks.
For instance, according to Pregame.com, more than 85% of the money wagered is on Cincinnati's money line, but the price is down from the -165 opener (which BetMGM still has listed) to a Reds (-147) consensus price.
I'm concerned the Reds-Royals is a trap game since it's a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition.Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME the ROYALS +1.5 (-110) for 1 unit because Bubic is better at home, the Reds' batters are less productive on the road and against left-handed pitching and Cincinnati's bullpen is unreliable enough for me to see the value in K.C.'s home run line.
For reference, Bubic's home numbers are listed above, but he's also got a .636 opponent's OPS at home (1.029 opponent's OPS on the road) with a 7.16 road ERA and 1.66 road WHIP.
Furthermore, Cincinnati's lineup has a .673 OPS vs. left-handed pitching (.771 OPS against righties) and ranks 28th in wRC+ and 26th in wOBA vs. lefties while the Reds batters are top-5 in both wRC+ and wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Lastly, Cincinnati's bullpen ranks 25th in WAR and second in home runs allowed per nine innings, and the Reds are just 3-9 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-1.5 run line margin this year.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 9.5 (-105) for 1 unit as a "contrarian play" against a market that's solidly behind the Over because of Bubic's aforementioned success at home plus Castillo has really bounced back after his early season struggles.
Since the beginning of June, Castillo has a 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.76 FIP, 23.7% hard-hit rate and is surrendering 0.24 home runs per nine innings.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick'em contests.Play now!
Bet on this game now atBetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.