Clark's 'Caps: Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns Game 1 player prop predictions
The Phoenix Suns host the Milwaukee Bucks Tuesday for Game 1 of the NBA Finals at their self-titled arena with the tip-off scheduled for 9:05 p.m. ET. Below, we'll highlight the top NBA player prop bet predictions for Bucks-Suns Game 1.
Pending the health of Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, these NBA Finals could be an all-timer if the two regular-season meetings of these teams are any indication of what we may see in this series.
Both Bucks-Suns regular-season meetings this year were decided by a single point and all of the stars played up to snuff.
Giannis averaged 40.0 points per game for the Bucks over the two games, SF Khris Middleton put up 22.0 PPG and PG Jrue Holiday scored 25 points with 8 assists in his one game against the Suns.
On the other side, both Suns C Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul both averaged a double-double and SG Devin Booker scored 27.0 PPG in the two Bucks-Suns regular-season meetings.
Also see:NBA Finals: Bucks at Suns Game 1 odds, picks and prediction
Bucks at Suns Game 1 prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Phoenix Suns PF Jae Crowder OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (-115)
There's a lot to like about Phoenix's starting 5 but one of the more underappreciated starters is stretch-4 Jae Crowder who has the defensive versatility to guard positions 1-4 and can get hot from behind the 3-point arc.
Between the breakout season/playoffs from Ayton and SF Mikal Bridges, the known superstardom of Booker and CP3's point guard brilliance, Crowder should get a ton of quality looks.
From a basketball perspective, Milwaukee's defensive strategy all season long has been to allow its opponents' weaker shooting players to chuck 3-pointers.
This is the main reason why Milwaukee's defense has the worst defensive 3-point percentage against opposing power forwards.
Crowder has gone Over 2.5 made 3-pointers in nine of his 16 postseason games this year on 6.4 attempted threes per game and his 36.9% 3-point rate is the second-highest postseason mark of his career.
Lastly, Crowder's ability to space the floor was instrumental in the Miami Heat's upset of the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals last postseason.
Crowder lit up Milwaukee from deep on 43.1% 3-point shooting and he sank a team-high 22 threes in Miami's five-game series victory over the Bucks.
BET J. CROWDER OVER 2.5 MADE 3-POINTERS (-115) for 1 unit.
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Phoenix Suns SG Devin Booker UNDER 28.5 points (-120)
Booker's stat line against the Bucks this season is pretty much identical to his postseason averages.
He's putting up 27.0 PPG on 44.4% field-goal shooting in the playoffs, which both match his regular-season numbers in two games against the Bucks.
Obviously, Booker's playoff PPG is 1.5 points below his projected points prop for Game 1. He has gone Over 28.5 points in just seven of his 16 games this postseason.
Furthermore, Milwaukee has perhaps the best defensive backcourt in the NBA as Holiday was named to the All-Defensive First Team and Middleton is leading all players this postseason in defensive win shares.
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Also, Booker does a fantastic job of getting to the charity stripe, but Milwaukee has the best defensive FT/FGA rate in both the regular season and playoffs. The Bucks sent opposing shooting guards to the foul line just 3.4 times per game in the regular season.
Lastly, the player props market is typically sharper than your standard sides and total markets.
BetMGM juicing up Booker's Under suggests they either have liability on his Under because sharp money is betting it or the oddsmakers want bettors to take the Over on Booker's points prop.
BET D. BOOKER UNDER 28.5 points (-120) for 1 unit.
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