Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction
The Milwaukee Brewers (51-35) continue their three-game series with the host New York Mets (44-37) Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York won the first game of the series 4-2 Monday thanks to a three-run rally in the bottom of the 7th inning, which took away Milwaukee starting RHP Brandon Woodruff's quality start and handed him a loss.
Season series: Mets lead 1-0.
LHP Brett Anderson takes the hill for the Brewers. Anderson is 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA (48 IP, 25 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 over 12 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-1, with 1 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 1 K at the Arizona Diamondbacks June 21.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 54 at-bats with a .315/.339/.463 slash line, 9/2 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.
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RHP Jacob deGrom makes his 15th start for the Mets. deGrom is 7-2 with a 0.95 ERA (85 IP, 9 ER), 0.54 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 14.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 14 K in New York's 4-3 loss Thursday at the Atlanta Braves.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 104 at-bats with a .250/.278/.327 slash line, 31/4 K/BB, 1 HR and 8 RBIs.
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Brewers at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers +1.5 (-105) | Mets -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Mets 5, Brewers 1
Money line (ML)
BET 1 unit on the METS (-250) because their 69.4% winning percentage in homes games is the highest in the MLB (25-11 straight-up), the Brewers haven't won in Anderson's last three starts and Anderson performs poorly on the road.
For instance, Anderson is 1-4 on the road with a 6.23 ERA (2.86 home ERA), 1.58 WHIP (1.32 home WHIP), 1.7 K/BB rate (2.7 K/BB rate at home) and a .882 opponent's OPS on the road (.718 opponent's OPS at home).
Unfortunately, this isn't a sexy bet with a big payout but betting the MLB regular season is a grind and it's better to turn a slight profit than wager more than your standard unit. If your usual bet is $100 then risking that on the METS (-250) turns a $40 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Brewers are one of the most profitable road teams to back (16-4 ATS as a road underdog) and the Mets are just 10-17 ATS as a home favorite despite their impressive home straight-up record.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 7 (-110) for a half unit as a "contrarian play" against a majority of the betting market that's backing the Over because both lineups have below-average production.
In fact, the Mets hitters are slightly less productive in Citi Field and the Brewers have a well-rested bullpen so if Anderson is looking shaky early Milwaukee can turn to its bullpen with a few quality arms.
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