Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies (41-43) and the Chicago Cubs (43-44) wrap up their four-game series Thursday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago snapped its 11-game winning streak with an 8-3 victory over Philadelphia Wednesday as the Cubs jumped on Phillies starting RHP Zack Wheeler by scoring five runs in the first two innings.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-1.
RHP Zach Eflin makes his 17th start for the Phillies. Eflin is 3-6 with a 4.13 ERA (96 IP, 44 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 2 K Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 64 at-bats with a .344/.386/.422 slash line, 7/4 K/BB, 0 HR and 7 RBIs.
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RHP Adbert Alzolay is on the mound for the Cubs. Alzolay is 4-8 with a 4.48 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 across 14 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K Saturday at the Cincinnati Reds.
- 2021 home split: 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA (35 IP, 15 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 3.9 K/BB rate over seven starts.
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Phillies at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cubs -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Cubs +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Cubs 4, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the CUBS (-110) for 1 unit because the Phillies and Eflin are a much weaker side on the road whereas Chicago and Alzolay have had a lot more success in Wrigley.
For instance, Philly is 17-27 in road games and Eflin is 1-5 on the road with a 5.71 ERA (2.25 home ERA), 1.33 WHIP (1.11 home WHIP) and a 6.3 K/BB rate (7.8 K/BB rate at home).
Furthermore, the Cubs are 27-15 at home and all of Alzolay's numbers at home are better than his road splits.
Also, Philly's bullpen ranks 28th in WAR, 25th in FIP and 21st in K-BB% while Chicago's bullpen ranks in the top 10 in each of those advanced pitching categories.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight "lean" to the Cubs -1.5 (+185) alternate run line because the payout is juicy. However, I'm staying away because the Phillies are 19-13 ATS with a plus-1.2 run line margin as a road 'dog and Chicago is 12-16 ATS with a minus-1.2 run line margin as a home favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a one-third unit because we are getting by far the worst of the number.
However, the presumed "sharp" side of the market is backing the Under while the "public" is betting the Over and oddsmakers have moved the Phillies-Cubs total down from the 10.5-run opener to the current number.
Moreover, the weather forecast is predicting 12 mph winds blowing in from centerfield, which really hurts a Chicago offense that ranks sixth in home runs hit per game.
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