Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies (42-43) and Boston Red Sox (54-34) open a three-game interleague series Friday with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Fenway Park. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, and 4.6 BB/9 in 70 IP over 13 starts and four relief appearances.
Velasquez has registered a 6.21 ERA over his last seven starts. He's posted a 5.16 ERA on the road since 2019.
RHP Garrett Richards is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. Richards is 4-5 with a 4.88 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and 4.4 BB/9 in 86 2/3 IP over 17 starts.
The righty owns a 6.61 ERA over his last seven starts and has logged a 6.75 ERA at Fenway this season.
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Phillies at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Red Sox -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 11 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Phillies 5, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
Philadelphia has struggled on the road with an 18-27 record through 45 games. However, the Phillies are coming off taking 3-of-4 at Wrigley Field and are 5-2 over their last seven games overall.
Boston is returning to Fenway after a 3-3 California trip. The Sox are looking to extend their home win streak as they have won eight in a row in the shadow of the Green Monster.
Looking at runs vs. runs allowed and some underlying indicators, peg Boston's .614 winning percentage as being somewhat unearned. There is a significant bullpen gap in production vs. expected production on both sides. Those gaps swing against Boston and toward Philly.
BACK THE PHILLIES (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
With the high total and pitching gray area PASS on Philadelphia's run line play.
Over/Under (O/U)
This is a big number, and there is a bit of room to leverage in shading the Under. However, on a humid, wind-out evening in Boston, consider just a partial-unit play on the UNDER 11 (-110).
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