Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction
The Kansas City Royals (36-52) and the Cleveland Indians (44-42) meet for the third game of their four-game series at Progressive Field Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Royals vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cleveland has won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 9-5 including a 2-1 victory Friday after 1B Bobby Bradley hit a walk-off solo home run in the bottom of the 9th inning.
Season series: Indians lead 7-1.
LHP Mike Minor is Kansas City's projected starter. Minor is 6-7 with a 5.36 ERA (102 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 over 18 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-2, with 6 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 6 K Monday against the Cincinnati Reds.
- 2021 road splits: 3-2 with a 5.02 ERA (43 IP, 24 ER), 1.35 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB rate over eight starts.
Follow every MLB game: Latest MLB scores, stats, schedules and standings.
RHP Cal Quantrill is on the rubber for the Indians. Quantrill is 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA (55 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 across seven starts and 18 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 3 K in Cleveland's 4-3 loss to the Houston Astros Sunday.
- 2021 home splits: 0-0 with a 3.71 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.43 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB rate across four starts.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team's money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you'll get up to $600 in free bets.Bet now!
Royals at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Indians -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-185) | Indians -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Indians 3, Royals 2
Money line (ML)
Slight "LEAN" to the INDIANS (-130) for a quarter unit because there's been "sharp" line movement towards Cleveland as it opened a -108 favorite but has been steamed up 22 cents on the dollar, and the Indians have owned the Royals this season.
My hesitation with the Indians in this spot is they have a losing record vs. lefty starters (16-18) and have a 7-18 record in games Quantrill has pitched in this season.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition.Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I don't like Cleveland enough to lay it with the Indians -1.5 (+150) especially with their 19-23 ATS record at home this season. Also, Kansas City is 24-21 ATS on the road this year.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 8.5 (+100) for 1 unit is my favorite play in the Royals-Indians game since Cleveland's lineup is terrible at home and against left-handed pitching and because the presumed "sharp" side of the market is backing the Under whereas the public is betting the Over.
For instance, Cleveland's lineup is in the bottom 10 at home and vs. left-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
Moreover, Minor is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last five starts against them and hasn't given up a home run in his last three starts against them, either.
Furthermore, K.C.'s lineup is in the bottom 3 of the majors on the road in wRC+, wOBA and OPS and is 23rd in hard-hit rate.
Also, according to Pregame.com, over 70% of the cash wagered on the total in Royals-Indians has been on the Under while more than 85% of the total bets placed are on the Over.
Generally, it's profitable following the money in sports betting especially when it's flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick'em contests.Play now!
Bet on this game now atBetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.