Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies (42-44) and Boston Red Sox (55-34) continue MLB's lone interleague series this weekend with a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Fenway Park on Saturday. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Matt Moore is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Moore is 0-1 with a 5.60 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, and 4.6 BB/9 in 27 1/3 IP through five starts and six relief appearances.
Saturday will mark the veteran's third straight start since rejoining the Phillies rotation on June 25. Moore has averaged roughly 4 IP per start this season, so figure on plenty of work for a second-tier Philadelphia bullpen.
LHP Martin Perez is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 7-4 with a 3.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 81 IP over 17 starts.
Perez has seemingly rebounded from getting roughed up over two straight turns in mid-June. After giving up a combined 11 ER in games on June 8 and June 13 he has posted a 1.86 ERA in 19 1/3 IP across his last four games.
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Phillies at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:43 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Red Sox -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-130) | Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 11 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Phillies 5, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
The Sox are looking to extend a nine-game home win streak but this game is ripe for some value on the visiting underdog.
Looking at runs vs. runs allowed and some underlying indicators, peg Boston's .618 winning percentage as being somewhat unearned. (a 17-9 mark in 1-run games has been a big boon for the Crimson Hose).
Philadelphia is at its best against lefty pitching, and current Phillies bats own an aggregate .741 OPS against Perez.
On a fade of Perez and the Boston pen, and on some prognostication of better days ahead for a Phillies relief unit bedeviled by some bad luck around the margins, BACK THE PHILLIES (+140).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
With the high total and pitching gray area, PASS on Philadelphia's run line play.
Over/Under (O/U)
This is a big number and on a 68-degree day with an inward breeze, look to leverage the UNDER 11 (-110).
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