UFC 264: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor odds, picks and prediction
In a lightweight bout in Saturday's main event, Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor meet at UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main event's expected to begin around midnight ET. Below, we analyze the UFC 264 Poirier vs. McGregor odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m ET on ESPN/ ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Poirier and McGregor face each other in the third installment of their trilogy. Poirier picked up a second-round TKO victory at UFC 257 in their last meeting in January. McGregor won the first battle via a first-round TKO at UFC 178 in 2014.
Poirier has victories in six of his past seven fights, with five of those bouts finishing inside the distance. He was submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov, with four of the stoppage wins all coming by way of KO/TKO.
McGregor, a.k.a. "Notorious", won just three of his last six fights and 10 of his last 11 bouts ended via stoppage. He was routinely ticking off early-round wins via KO/TKO from 2013-15, but he has slowed considerably in recent years.
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UFC 264 Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor: Odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line) : Dustin Poirier -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Conor McGregor +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Over/Under : 2.5 Rounds (Over +115 | Under -140)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -375)
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UFC 264 Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Poirier 27-6-0 | McGregor 22-5-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
McGregor (+110) is still quite the draw when it comes to pay-per-view signups and overall interest in the card, but POIRIER (-135) is easily on the better trajectory. He recorded a TKO of the former champ in the second round last time out, and he'll take the rubber match, too, as McGregor is a shell of his former self.
Poirier hasn't had a submission win since TUF 16 against Jonathan Brookins in 2012, so you can leave that out of the equation. Instead, play POIRIER BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+165) on the 7-way line for Method of Victory.
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Over/Under (O/U)
This fight is going to end just like the other two matchups in this trilogy, and that's by way of the KO/TKO. However, you cannot play No (-375) to "Will the fight go the distance?", as that's just too expensive.
Instead, look to UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (-225). It's also a little on the pricey side, but it's hard to imagine Poirier needing longer than that to finish the former champ.
In addition, taking POIRIER IN ROUND 2 (+650) and POIRIER IN ROUND 3 (+800) is a good play in a two-round block. Yes, you will lose one of those bets, but if Poirier drops Notorious in Round 2 or 3, you will be well ahead.
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