UFC 264: Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson odds, picks and prediction
In a welterweight bout on Saturday's main card, Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson meet at UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC 264 Burns vs. Thompson odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m ET on ESPN/ ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Burns steps into the octagon two inches shorter than his counterpart, and with a four-inch disadvantage in the reach department. However, Burns has the advantage in the takedown average department by a 2.08-to-0.32 margin.
Burns was dropped last time out in a third-round knockout by Kamaru Usman for the strap in the main event at UFC 258. Two of his past three fights have ended via stoppage, and just four of his past 10 bouts have been decisions.
Thompson, a.k.a. "Wonderboy", has picked up consecutive unanimous-decision victories over Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque after a two-bout losing streak. Seven of his past eight fights have ended up going the distance, with four wins, two losses and a draw in those bouts.
UFC 264 Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson: Odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line) : Gilbert Burns +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Stephen Thompson -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Over/Under : 2.5 Rounds (Over -150 | Under +125)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -140 | No +115)
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UFC 264 Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Burns 19-4-0 | Thompson 16-4-1
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
BURNS (+135) is a value play on the 2-way line, as his only loss since July 7, 2018 is a third-round KO/TKO loss to Usman, and there is no shame in that.
Thompson (-160) is just 3-3 across his past six bouts, although his recent fight history is littered with top fighters. The "Wonderboy" won't be an easy out for Burns, but I like the Brazilian fighter at this price.
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Over/Under (O/U)
YES (-140): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play, and this particular bout has the chance for Fight of the Night honors. It should be a tremendous brawl that goes to the bitter end.
OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-150) isn't a bad play and gives you a little wiggle room in the event of a late stoppage.
In addition, playing BURNS ON POINTS (+350) is worth a roll of the dice for the chance to more than triple up on your initial wager.
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