Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction
The Miami Marlins (38-50) host the Atlanta Braves (44-44) for the finale of their three-game series Sunday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta is trying to complete the sweep of Miami after winning Saturday, 5-4, but regardless of the series outcome the story of the weekend will be Braves All-Star OF Ronald Acuna Jr. suffering a season-ending knee injury.
Season series: Tied 6-6.
RHP Ian Anderson makes his 18th start for the Braves. Anderson is 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA (93 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 4 K in Atlanta's 2-1 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday.
- Anderson picked up a no-decision vs. Miami April 15 with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 6 K in Atlanta's 7-6 loss.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 55 at-bats with a .255/.339/.327 slash line, 14/7 K/BB, 0 HR and 7 RBIs.
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RHP Pablo Lopez is Miami's projected starter. Lopez is 4-5 with a 2.94 ERA (95 IP, 31 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 across 18 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Miami's 2-1 win vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday.
- Lopez is 0-2 against Atlanta this season with a 14.14 ERA (7 IP, 11 ER), 3 BB and 8 K in three starts.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 153 at-bats with a .248/.308/.425 slash line, 37/11 K/BB, 6 HR and 21 RBIs.
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Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:41 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+170) | Marlins +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Braves 3, Marlins 1
Money line (ML)
"LEAN" to the BRAVES (-105) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Anderson has performed much better against the Marlins than Lopez has against Atlanta.
However, since Miami has a significant edge in bullpen pitching I'm sticking with Atlanta's First 5 Innings money line. The Marlins relievers have the best FIP in the majors and sixth-best WAR.
Also, it's only a "lean" towards the Braves because the injury of Acuna could have a carryover effect and even if it doesn't the fact remains that Atlanta still lost a top-5 player in the league.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because both Atlanta's full game and First 5 Innings run lines don't provide the value needed to take a stab at.
The Braves are 8-15 ATS as a road favorite and 17-28 ATS vs. NL East foes while the Marlins are 21-12 ATS in division games and 11-7 ATS as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
GIMME the UNDER 7 (-115) for 1 unit. This is my favorite play in the Braves-Marlins game.
Atlanta has played to the highest rate of Unders on the road this season going 16-25-1 O/U in away games and is 19-23-3 O/U vs. NL East foes. Miami is 13-18-2 O/U in divisional games and 18-21-3 O/U at home.
In addition, the Braves have scored the fifth-fewest runs on the road and the Marlins have scored the fourth-fewest runs at home.
Also, the weather forecast is predicting 12 mph winds blowing in from centerfield so we shouldn't expect many dingers here.
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