Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction
The Cincinnati Reds (47-42) and the Milwaukee Brewers (53-38) wrap up their four-game series Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
After losing the series opener, Cincinnati has won the last two games of the series by a combined score of 6-3 as both Reds starting pitchers tossed quality starts and prevented the Brewers from cozying up against Cincinnati's awful bullpen.
Season series: Reds lead 7-5.
RHP Luis Castillo is Cincinnati's projected starter. In 18 starts, Castillo is 3-10 with a 4.81 ERA (97 1/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Cincinnati's 7-6 loss at the Kansas City Royals Tuesday.
- Castillo is 0-2 this season against Milwaukee with a 4.08 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 9 H, 10 BB and 19 K in three starts.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 153 at-bats with a .209/.320/.333 slash line, 49/21 K/BB, 4 HR and 12 RBIs.
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RHP Brandon Woodruff makes his 18th start for the Brewers. Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.10 ERA (107 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 0.78 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K at the New York Mets Monday.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 70 at-bats with a .286/.342/.543 slash line, 27/5 K/BB, 5 HR and 10 RBIs.
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Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:09 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-160) | Brewers -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Reds 3, Brewers 2
Money line (ML)
Slight "LEAN" to the REDS (+135) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit - if at all - because I "like" Cincinnati's First 5 Innings run line even better.
Quietly the Reds have been on a hot streak, picking up wins in eight of their last 10 games, and Castillo's pitching peripherals against active Brewers batters are better than Woodruff's vs. current Reds hitters.
Woodruff does have an absurdly high 36.5% strikeout rate against active Reds hitters but Castillo has the better FIP, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity and launch angle against current Brewers batters.
Also, Castillo has turned it around after an abysmal start to the season. Castillo has six quality starts with a 2.00 ERA, 3.02 FIP and 0.40 home run per nine-inning rate over his last seven outings.
Lastly, stick with Cincy's First 5 Innings lines if you're backing the Reds in this one. The Reds need as many quality innings as Castillo can provide because their bullpen has the highest home run per nine-inning rate in the majors, the second-highest BB% and sixth-worst xFIP.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the REDS +0.5 (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because of all the aforementioned reasons plus this is a good price for a half-run worth of insurance on Cincy's First 5 Innings money line bet above.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 3.5 (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Castillo is starting to pitch closer to the "top of the rotation" starter form we are accustomed to and Woodruff is a top-5 starter in the National League.
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