St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction
The St. Louis Cardinals (44-46) and Chicago Cubs (44-46) conclude their three-game series Sunday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the rubber match after St. Louis evened the series with a 6-0 victory Saturday thanks to Cardinals starting LHP Kwang Hyun Kim pitching six scoreless frames and three home runs from the St. Louis lineup.
Season series: Cubs lead 6-2.
RHP Adam Wainwright makes his 18th start for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 7-5 with a 3.58 ERA (105 2/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 this year.
- Last start: Win, 6-5, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 3 K Tuesday at the San Francisco Giants.
- Wainwright pitched to a no-decision May 23 against the Cubs with 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 7 K in St. Louis's 2-1 loss.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 264 at-bats with a .231/.287/.379 slash line, 60/19 K/BB, 9 HR and 34 RBIs.
RHP Trevor Williams is Chicago's projected starter. Williams is 3-2 with a 5.51 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 over 10 starts and one bullpen appearance.
- Last start: Win, 4-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 7 K at the Pittsburgh Pirates May 26. This is Williams' first start since going on the IL after an emergency appendectomy May 31.
- Williams got shelled in a bullpen outing for 7 runs (3 ER) on 6 H and 1 BB with 3 K over 3 1/3 IP in Chicago's 15-10 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 134 at-bats with a .313/.356/.545 slash line, 29/9 K/BB, 7 HR and 20 RBIs.
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Cardinals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:46 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Cubs +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Cubs 2
Money line (ML)
BET the CARDINALS (-115)FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because St. Louis has the way more effective starter on the hill and it avoids their relief pitching.
Ten of Wainwright's 17 outings this season have been deemed a "quality start". Wainwright had his six-game quality start streak snapped in his previous start vs. the Giants even though he picked up the win as he allowed 3 ER on 5 IP.
Furthermore, all of Wainwright's pitching peripherals, including K%, exit velocity, expected wOBA and FIP vs. current Cubs hitters are better than Williams' against active St. Louis batters.
I'm avoiding betting the Cardinals for the full game because their relief pitching is dead last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since Chicago is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog this season and St. Louis's bullpen cannot be trusted to sprinkle on the Cardinals -1.5 (+145).
St. Louis's First 5 Innings run line of -0.5 (+120) isn't a big enough payout to go that route either.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight "LEAN" to the UNDER 7 (-105) for a quarter unit as a "contrarian play" against a market that's barreling into the Over and has steamed this total up from the 6.5-run opener.
However, it's supposed to be rainy and windy at Wrigley Field Sunday with the weather forecast predicting 15 mph winds blowing in from left-centerfield.
Moreover, both lineups have a bottom-10 hard-hit rate in the majors against right-handed pitching and each is in the bottom 8 of batting average against RHP too.
The high wind speeds greatly reduce the chances of home runs and neither lineup can be trusted to string together hits. Also, these teams have a combined 10-16-1 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
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