2021 AL Pennant odds, picks and prediction
On the eve of the 2021 season restarting with a key American League rivalry series between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, we have reached a key juncture where we can prognosticate October using current-season trends. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's odds to win the AL pennant with MLB picks and predictions.
This season is unique because due to the shortened campaign a year ago, 2021 stands alone more than most with what we have to go on heading into the second half. The current AL division leaders are the Red Sox (East), Chicago White Sox (Central), and Houston Astros (West).
The Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays also own win percentages north of .550 and should be considered contenders for an AL flag. Which of those five teams present the best value in the betting market? What darkhorse candidate/s might join them by September?
Let's look at the top-five value bets to be the Junior Circuit's World Series representative.
AL pennant odds, picks and predictions
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday, July 14, at 2 p.m. ET.
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Houston Astros (+225)
In regard to wins-vs.-run differentials and wins-vs.-supporting metrics that form the building blocks of run-scoring and run prevention, the Astros stand out as the most valid of the three current division leaders.
The Red Sox and Astros own the same winning percentage (.604) at the break, but one could wiggle Boston's figure down below .525 and Houston's up over .625. An area we can expect the 'Stros to make gains is in the bullpen.
If Houston can turn a 4.09 bullpen ERA into more of the 3.37 figure it has posted since June 1, the Astros could run away with the West. Houston is 42-22 against teams that are .500 or better. It's a club worthy of its favorite status, and the +225 figure may give other contenders a bit too much credit.
New York Yankees (+1000)
The Yankees face the Red Sox in eight of their next 10 games beginning Thursday. That stretch can either vault the Bronx Bombers - owners of a much improved .779 OPS since June 6 - into a tighter race or send them into seller mode on the trade market.
New York has room for legitimate gains in starting pitching and batting. The Yanks bullpen went into the break in shambles; getting the relief bunch turned around and playing a ton of games against the overachieving Red Sox and Rays makes the Yankees worth a look.
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Toronto Blue Jays (+1100)
See Yankees, New York.
A similar track to success exists for New York state's other 2021 AL East team. The Buffalo-based Blue Jays have a top-10 offense and a capable starting rotation. Toronto had an inexplicable stretch from May 19-June 18 when the team scored 4.8 runs per game on an .807 OPS … and went 8 games under .500 (10-18).
The Jays have been undone by a 6-10 mark in 1-run games. Look for big things in the second half.
Los Angeles Angels (+5000)
The Halos head into the second half one game over .500 at 45-44 and in fourth place in the West; however, L.A. went into the break on a 9-4 run.
The Angels also have a top-five offense and a capable enough rotation to put together a few more fortnights just like that in July, August, and September. The second- and third-place clubs ahead of them in the Athletics and Seattle Mariners, respectively, are gettable.
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Minnesota Twins (+15000)
The Twins, who played .600 ball last summer, may be too far under-.500 to get going on a serious wild-card run. At 39-50, they have a long way to go before they can make any noise, but they can dominate in their weak division for a couple months.
The Twins have cranked out 4.73 RPG and Statcast quality of contact metrics indicate bigger numbers being easily attainable. Minnesota has also endured low batting averages on balls in play in inning lead-off and other high-leverage situations.
Add in a bullpen which can be more average than a lofty 4.91 ERA suggests, and the Twins have the materials to put together a surprise run.
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