Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction
The Miami Marlins (40-51) and Philadelphia Phillies (45-45) continue their four-game series Saturday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Game 3's first pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
These teams split a seven-inning doubleheader Friday to open the series with the Phillies winning the first game 5-2, and Miami took the second 7-0.
Season series: Marlins lead 6-5.
RHP Zach Thompson is on the hill for the Marlins. Thompson is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 across five starts in his rookie season.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Miami's 8-7 loss at the Atlanta Braves July 4.
- 2021 road splits: 0-2 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 5 BB and 14 K in three starts.
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RHP Vince Velasquez is Philadelphia's projected starter. Velasquez is 3-4 with a 5.35 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 14 starts and four relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 11-5, with 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 2 K at the Boston Red Sox July 9.
- Velasquez is 2-0 against Miami this season with 0.00 ERA, 13 IP, 5 H, 3 BB and 12 K in two starts.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 125 at-bats with a .280/.353/.400 slash line, 35/12 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.
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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Phillies -1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Marlins 7, Phillies 5
Money line (ML)
I can only "LEAN" to the MARLINS (-105) for a half unit since Miami's bullpen is significantly better than Philly's.
For example, Marlins relievers allow the fewest home runs per nine innings and are sixth in WAR while the Phillies' bullpen has the most blown saves and ranks 27th in WAR.
However, their lineups are equally below average vs. right-handed pitching, and the starting pitching matchup is a toss-up.
Velasquez pitched very well in his first two outings against the Marlins but he has a 6.89 ERA over his last seven starts, which includes a seven-inning scoreless effort June 29 vs. Miami.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I don't "like" Miami enough to lay it with the Marlins -1.5 (+145), and Miami is 2-7 ATS this season as a road favorite with a minus-2.6 run line margin; whereas Philly has an MLB-high 82.2% cover rate as a home dog (13-3 ATS).
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the OVER 10 (-105) for a half unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since the "sharps" have steamed the total up from the 9-run opener with all their Over action.
Furthermore, the Marlins have played to the Over in four straight, and the Phillies have gone Over the total in their last six against teams with a losing record.
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