Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction
The Milwaukee Brewers (54-39) continue their three-game series with the host Cincinnati Reds (48-43) Saturday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Reds starting RHP Tyler Mahle turned Friday's game over to his relievers in the sixth inning with a lead and runners on but the Brewers rallied to tie the game and proceeded to score six runs against Cincy's bullpen in Milwaukee's 11-6 series-opening victory.
Season series: Reds lead 8-6.
RHP Brandon Woodruff is Milwaukee's projected starter. Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.06 ERA (113 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 over 18 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Milwaukee's 3-1 loss Sunday against the Reds.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 95 at-bats with a .305/.347/.505 slash line, 31/5 K/BB, 5 HR and 11 RBIs.
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RHP Luis Castillo is making his 20th start for the Reds. Castillo is 3-10 with a 4.65 ERA (102 2/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 6 BB and 6 K in Cincy's 3-1 victory Sunday at Milwaukee.
- Castillo is 0-2 this season vs. the Brewers with a 3.52 ERA (23 IP, 9 ER), 1.22 WHIP and 1.6 K/BB in four starts.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 171 at-bats with a .205/.327/.316 slash line, 55/27 K/BB, 4 HR and 12 RBIs.
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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:11 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Reds +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Reds 4, Brewers 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight "lean" to the Brewers (-140) because Woodruff had a dominant first half of the season, capped off with his second All-Star selection, and Milwaukee's bullpen is significantly better than Cincy's.
However, Castillo has been dealing since the beginning of June (1.97 ERA with 48/22 K/BB over his past eight starts), my buy-price for Milwaukee in this spot is "Brewers (-130)" and I prefer Cincy's First 5 Innings run line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight "LEAN" to the REDS +0.5 (-135) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit because this number is a little pricey and I think there is more value in the Under for the First 5 Innings.
That being said, not only has Castillo been more locked in lately but his pitching peripherals vs. current Brewers batters are slightly better than Woodruff's against active Reds hitters.
Furthermore, Castillo's effectiveness has improved in the second half of the season over his career while Woodruff's effectiveness has decreased.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 4 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because we cannot trust Cincy's bullpen since it got nuked in the series opener and ranks in bottom 7 of the majors in xFIP, WAR and home runs allowed per nine innings.
Also, the Brewers are 5-13 O/U in Woodruff starts, the Under has cashed in Milwaukee's last six games as a favorite and the Under has cashed in six of the last seven Brewers-Reds meetings.
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