Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction
The Milwaukee Brewers (55-39) finish their three-game series at the Cincinnati Reds (48-44) Sunday in Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 18-10 with Brewers SS Willy Adames hitting a combined 6-for-11 with a double, one home run and five RBIs in both games.
Season series: Reds lead 8-7.
RHP Corbin Burnes is Milwaukee's projected starter. Burnes is 4-4 with a 2.36 ERA (87 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 13.1 K/9 over 15 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 8 K in Milwaukee's 4-3 loss at the New York Mets July 7.
- 2021 road splits: 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.80 WHIP and 11.8 K/BB rate in six starts.
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RHP Sonny Gray is on the rubber for the Reds. Gray is 2-4 with a 3.19 ERA (62 IP, 22 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.6 K/8 over 12 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-2, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 7 K at the Kansas City Royals July 7.
- Gray is 0-0 against Milwaukee this season with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 159 at-bats with a .245/.333/.711 slash line, 53/20 K/BB, 4 HR and 20 RBIs.
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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:52 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Reds +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 6, Reds 3
Money line (ML)
The play is to BET 1 unit on the BREWERS (-140) since they have an overwhelming edge in pitching and the Brew Crew are 6-2 vs. the Reds this season in Cincy.
Gray has pitched well for the Reds this season, but Burnes has Cy Young-caliber stuff and could be flying slightly under the radar since he's just 4-4 on the season.
Burnes grades in the 95th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K%, BB%, barrel rate and chase rate.
Also, there's an ocean-sized gulf between these two bullpens. Milwaukee's relievers rank in the top 10 of K-BB%, xFIP and ERA while Cincy's bullpen is in the bottom 10 in each of those categories and has the second-highest home run per nine-inning rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight "LEAN" to the BREWERS -1.5 (+120) for a one-third unit if at all because I much prefer Milwaukee's money line.
However, the Brewers have the second-highest cover rate on the road this season (29-17 ATS), the Reds are 3-7 ATS as home underdogs and five of Milwaukee's six wins in Cincy this season have been by at least three runs.
My hesitancy on betting Milwaukee's run line in this spot is Gray is having a solid season and his pitching peripherals vs. this Brewers lineup look pretty good, so we might need the Brewers to cover the spread in the late innings against Cincy's horrible bullpen.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight "lean" to the Over 8 (-105) because despite how dominant Burnes has looked at times this season, Milwaukee is still 7-6 O/U in games he starts and the Under is 3-0-1 in the past four Brewers-Reds meetings in Cincy.
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