San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction
The San Francisco Giants (58-33) conclude their three-game set at Busch Stadium with the St. Louis Cardinals (45-47) Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Giants vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis picked up the win Saturday, 3-1, evening the set after San Francisco won the first meeting Friday, 7-2.
Season series: Cardinals lead 3-2.
RHP Johnny Cueto is San Francisco's projected starter. Cueto is 6-5 with a 4.15 ERA (78 IP, 36 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 over 14 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-5, with 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 7 K July 6 against St. Louis.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 177 at-bats with a .254/.318/.469 slash line, 38/12 K/BB, 9 HR and 27 RBIs.
LHP Wade LeBlanc takes the hill for the Cardinals. LeBlanc is 0-2 with a 4.78 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 over four starts and nine relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 10-5, with 3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 1 K July 9 at the Chicago Cubs.
- LeBlanc's pitching peripherals this season are dreadful; he grades in the 21st percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K% and whiff rate.
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Giants at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:19 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+125) | Cardinals +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Giants 4, Cardinals 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the GIANTS (-130) for 1 unit because they have an edge in both starting and relief pitching, hit lefties better than the Cardinals hit righties and there's been "sharp" line movement towards San Francisco.
For example, the Giants hitters rank 11th or better vs. left-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and OPS while the Cardinals batters sit in the bottom 10 vs. righties in each of those stats.
Furthermore, San Francisco's bullpen is pretty mediocre but St. Louis's ranks dead last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.
Lastly, the market is hammering San Francisco's money line, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Giants' price up 20 cents on the dollar from the opener because of their liability against the pro-San Francisco action.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Cardinals -1.5 (+125) isn't a big enough payout for me especially if we are getting to the party late on San Francisco's money line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight "LEAN" to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) for a one-third unit - if at all - because I prefer San Francisco's money line more than the total.
However, there's a suspect "line freeze" in the betting market with more than 80% of the cash wagered on the total being on the Over (according to Pregame.com) but the line hasn't budged.
Typically when we see one-sided action in the betting market then the House increases the price of the more popular side, so the total not moving despite heavy action on the Over is alarming.
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