Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays (48-45) meet the New York Mets (51-43) Saturday for the second game of their three-game interleague set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Blue Jays vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Mets lead 1-0.
LHP Hyun Jin Ryu is Toronto's projected starter. Ryu is 9-5 with a 3.32 ERA (105 2/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 over 18 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-0, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 4 K Sunday against the Texas Rangers.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 1.39 FIP with a .226 batting average (BA), .223 wOBA, .318 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.4 K% and 86.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 63 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Mets. Walker is 7-3 with a 2.99 ERA (90 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 across 17 starts.
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- Last outing: No-decision with 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 0 K Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 2.02 FIP with a .195 BA, .236 wOBA, .400 xSLG, 36.4 K% and 88.5 mph EV in 44 PA.
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Blue Jays at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mets +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Blue Jays 5, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
This is a "good spot" for the BLUE JAYS (-120) because they are productive against right-handed pitching while the Mets struggle vs. lefties and have a 10-17 record when facing lefty starters this season.
For instance, Toronto's lineup is top 3 in wRC+, wOBA and OPS and has the eighth-highest hard-contact rate vs. right-handed pitching.
Furthermore, New York's lineup is below-average to bad in wRC+, wOBA and OPS against left-handed pitching, and Ryu has pitched well when visiting New York. Ryu is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA (27 IP, 3 ER), 0.70 WHIP and 7.8 K/BB rate in four career starts at Citi Field.
Also, the Blue Jays have dominated interleague competition (13-3 overall record) whereas the Mets are just 6-7 when playing AL teams.
BET 1 unit on the BLUE JAYS (-120).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight "LEAN" to the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+135) for a tiny wager because Toronto is 12-4 ATS in interleague games (New York is 6-7 ATS) and the Blue Jays have the third-best cover rate as a road favorite at 11-8 ATS.
My hesitancy with Toronto's run line is that New York is 7-2 ATS as a home underdog this year, the Blue Jays bullpen is a below-average unit across several advanced pitching metrics, and the Mets relievers are top tier.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for a half unit because Ryu has been good in Citi Field, Walker has been lights out at home this year and the Mets are 2-7 O/U this season as home underdogs.
Walker is 4-0 at home this season with a 1.75 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB in eight starts.
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