Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction
The Seattle Mariners (54-46) host the Houston Astros (61-39) for the opener of a four-game series Monday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Astros lead 4-3.
RHP Luis Garcia is on the mound for the Astros. Garcia is 7-5 with a 2.86 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 over 16 starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 9-3, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 8 K Tuesday against the Cleveland Indians.
- Garcia beat Seattle in his first career start against the Mariners with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 6 K in Houston's 1-0 loss against Seattle April 29.
RHP Darren McCaughan is making his first career start for the Mariners. McCaughan's first appearance was Wednesday at the Colorado Rockies where he had 5 IP with 1 ER, 0 H, 3 BB and 0 K in Seattle's 6-3 loss.
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Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Mariners +165 bet $100 to win $165)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-120) | Mariners +1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Mariners 4, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight "lean" to the Mariners (+165) because while I'm leaning toward Seattle's run line it's tough to project how effective McCaughan will be. McCaughan isn't a top-rated prospect in Seattle's organization; however, that doesn't mean he can't put together a quality start Monday.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
"LEAN" to the MARINERS +1.5 (+100) for a half unit since this figures to be low-scoring (the Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 Astros-Mariners meetings), which makes the insurance even more important.
Also, this is a good spot for "contrarian play" because the Astros are one of the highest-profile teams in the majors and are garnering a vast majority of the action in the betting market.
The Mariners are still somewhat flying under the radar despite being just 1.5 games back of the Oakland Athletics for the second AL Wild Card spot. However, Seattle is 25-10 as a home underdog this season with a plus-1.7 run line margin while Houston is 16-18 as a road favorite.
Lastly, Seattle has a penchant for playing one-run games as the Mariners are 23-8 this year in one-run games, and three of their seven games against the Astros this season have been decided by a single run.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for 1 unit because of the aforementioned trend between these two teams, Houston is 5-10-1 O/U record in Garcia's 15 starts and this is a "pros vs. Joes" scenario in the betting market with the presumed "sharp" money backing the Under.
For instance, over 60% of the cash wagered has been on the Under whereas three-fourths of the bets have been placed on the Over, according to Pregame.com at publication.
Generally, it's more profitable in sports betting to follow the money especially when it's flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
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