Top picks and predictions for Blue Jays at Red Sox - 7/26
The Toronto Blue Jays (49-46) and Boston Red Sox (61-39) open a four-game AL East set Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Thomas Hatch is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. Hatch has not been used since being called up from Triple-A Buffalo last Monday, so this will be his first MLB appearance of the season.
The 26-year-old made one start and 16 relief appearances in 2020, clocking a 2.73 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 26 1/3 IP. He registered a 2.15 ERA across eight Triple-A starts this season.
RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. In 19 starts this season, he is 8-4 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 4.0 BB/9 through 103 IP.
Pivetta got off to a solid start this season, but he owns a 5.35 ERA over his last seven starts. The veteran hurler is making a second straight against Toronto and his fourth of the season. The Jays got to Pivetta for 4 runs on 11 hits in 6 2/3 IP last Monday.
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The right-hander has posted a 7.56 ERA through 16 2/3 frames against the AL East rivals, and current Jays bats own a robust 1.104 OPS against him.
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Blue Jays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Red Sox -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays +1.5 (-150) | Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Blue Jays 5, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
Toronto dropped two of three games at the New York Mets over the weekend and is just 2-4 over its last 4 road tilts. Boston took three of four games from the New York Yankees at Fenway over the weekend. The Sox are 4-1 through their last five games, after going 2-6 from July 6-18.
The BLUE JAYS (+120) are a decent play in this series opener. In a runs-versus-runs-allowed analysis, Toronto's record is some seven games below expectations. In a direct-opponent example of that, the Jays have outscored the Red Sox 65-56 but are just 4-7 against the AL East's first-place team.
Pivetta has struggled to a 5.62 ERA at home, and the offense fronting him owns a pedestrian .721 OPS over its last 18 games. Toronto batted .333/.380/.680 (1.060) in its last trip to Fenway Park in mid-June.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the additional juice in this prop.
Over/Under (O/U)
The total of 11 is ripe for some contrarian action. BACK THE UNDER 11 (-105).
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