Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction
The Milwaukee Brewers (70-47) suffered a 14-4 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates (42-74) Saturday afternoon, and will look to bounce back in the nightcap. First pitch for game two of the double-header is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. Let's analyze the lines around the Brewers vs.Piratesodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Brewers LHP Aaron Ashby (0-0, 13.50 ERA) will be making his third start of the year. He has pitched a total of 2 2/3 IP and allowed 4 ER with 1 K and 3 BB.
- Ashby's first start in June was ugly, as he surrendered 4 ER without escaping the first inning. He tossed 2 scoreless innings against the Chicago Cubs last week, but a rain delay cut his outing short at just 23 pitches.
- Posted a 4.48 ERA in Triple-A this season, along with a 14.1 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. He hasn't been pushed especially hard, as he has averaged fewer than 3 IP per appearance in his 22 games this season between Triple-A and the majors.
Pirates RHP Mitch Keller (3-9, 7.06 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.81 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 57 1/3 IP.
- A .364 BABIP and 65% LOB% have certainly played a role in his struggles, but Keller hasn't done himself any favors with a BB/9 that is the eighth highest among pitchers with 10 or more starts.
- Keller has been knocked around in his nine home starts this season. He has recorded an ugly 8.29 ERA while opposing batters have put up a .329/.420/.531 line against him.
Brewers at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Pirates +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-112) | Pirates +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Brewers 5, Pirates 3
Money line (ML)
Ashby has a lot of talent, as shown by his impressive strikeout totals in Triple-A this season, but he is a work in progress and hasn't proven anything at the big league level yet. We need to look no further than his opponent, Keller, to see that prospect pedigree doesn't always translate to immediate success in the majors.
The Brewers should win, but this line is a little too high to invest in. PASS and look for value elsewhere.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Keller has been getting roughed up lately, and the Milwaukee bats are in a good spot for a big game Saturday night. Even factoring in Saturday afternoon's win, the Pirates are 4-14 in their last 18 games, with 12 of the losses coming by more than 1 run.
BREWERS -1.5 (-112) is the side to take.
Over/Under (O/U)
The total has gone Over in each of Keller's last four starts, as he has been very generous with the runs he's allowing.
The Brewers should rebound from a blowout loss earlier in the day, while on the other side, Ashby can't be expected to completely shut down the Pittsburgh offense. Look for this total to slide in OVER 7.5 (+105).
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