Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

The San Francisco Giants (84-46) host the Milwaukee Brewers (79-52) Monday to kick off a four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee snapped a three-game skid with a 6-2 victory Sunday at the Minnesota Twins in the finale of a three-game series. The Brewers have won 13 of their last 20 games and are 8.5 games atop the NL Central standings.

San Francisco lost the rubber match of their three-game series at the Atlanta Braves Sunday 9-0, but the Giants have won 15 of their last 20 games and are 2.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the NL West.

Season series: Giants lead 2-1.

RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 23rd start for the Brewers. Burnes is 8-4 with a 2.30 ERA (133 IP, 34 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.

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• Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 5 K in 7-4 win over the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday.
• Burnes got a no-decision Aug. 6 against San Francisco with a stat line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K in a 2-1 home victory.
• vs. Giants on the current roster: 2.51 FIP with a .220 batting average (BA), .234 wOBA, .312 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.9 K% and 82.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 52 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Giants. Cueto is 7-6 with a 3.73 ERA (108 2/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 20 starts.

• Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 2 K in 3-2 win at the New York Mets Wednesday.
• 2021 home splits: 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.06 WHIP and 5.8 K/BB in 10 starts.
• vs. Brewers on the current roster: 4.79 FIP with a .282 BA, .338 wOBA, .479 xSLG, 16.5 K% and 88.3 mph EV in 85 PA.

Brewers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:46 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Giants +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
• Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Giants +1.5 (-145)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 2

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit because they have a big edge in pitching, there's " reverse line movement" in Milwaukee's direction and the Brew Crew is the best road team in the majors.

Burnes has better basic numbers and advanced pitching numbers against San Francisco than Cueto vs. Milwaukee. Also, Burnes grades in the 94th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, EV, K%, xSLG, expected wOBA, and chase rate.

Milwaukee's bullpen ranks higher than San Francisco's in xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and swinging-strike rate.

On top of that, the Brewers batters rank better than the Giants in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate over the past two weeks.

Lastly, more than 60% of the action is on San Francisco's money line, but the Brewers' money line has been moved up from -120 on the opener to the current price (according to Pregame.com). It's a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Brewers -1.5 (+120) needs to be north of +145 for me to take a stab at Milwaukee's run line because the Giants are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs and have the best home winning percentage in MLB.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a half unit because we have a "pros vs. joes" scenario in the betting market as the presumed "sharp" money favors the Under whereas the public is backing the Over, according to Pregame.com.

Roughly 85% of the cash wagered is on the Under, but a slight majority of the bets placed are with the Over. Typically, it's wiser to follow the money in sports betting especially when it's flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

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