Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and prediction
The Chicago White Sox (89-68) host the Cincinnati Reds (82-75) Tuesday to begin a two-game interleague miniseries at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Reds vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincy has rattled off four straight wins but needs an absolute collapse from the St. Louis Cardinals, who are 5.5 games ahead of the Reds for the second NL Wild Card seed. The Cardinals clinch that spot with one victory.
Chicago has clinched the AL Central and is pretty much locked into the 2- vs. 3-seed American League Division Series matchup vs. whoever comes out of the AL West. The White Sox have been playing .500 baseball over their past 10 and 20 games.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
RHP Riley O'Brien makes his MLB debut for the Reds. O'Brien was 7-7 with a 4.55 ERA (112 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 over 22 starts and one relief appearance in Triple-A this season. He is the 24th-ranked prospect in Cincinnati's farm system.
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RHP Reynaldo Lopez is Chicago's projected starter. Lopez is 3-3 with a 3.16 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 over eight starts and 10 bullpen outings.
- Last outing: No-decision with 3 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Chicago's 7-2 victory at the Cleveland Indians Thursday.
- 2021 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA (24 IP, 8 ER), 0.79 WHIP and 5.2 K/BB in three starts and five relief appearances.
Reds at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +155 (bet $155 to win $100) | White Sox -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-130) | White Sox -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Prediction
White Sox 6, Reds 2
Money line (ML)
"LEAN" to the WHITE SOX (-190) for a half unit since this is on the fringe of my price range considering Lopez isn't a "top of the rotation" starter on Chicago's pitching staff.
Also, perhaps O'Brien gives Cincy a decent outing because no one in this White Sox lineup has faced O'Brien in the majors yet.
However, Chicago is six games above-.500 in interleague games, 12 games above-.500 vs. righty starters and 22 games above-.500 at home.
Plus I'm skeptical of Cincy's motivation since it's all but eliminated from playoff contention and whose starter is making their debut in "The Show".
Furthermore, the White Sox has edges in the three most important phases of the game: Starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Lastly, we have "sharp line movement" towards Chicago since this game opened with the White Sox being around -163 as a consensus favorite before being steamed up by the market to the current price.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because we don't really know what we're going to see from O'Brien today, Cincy's bullpen is the only unit that's pitching better than Chicago's this month, and the Reds are 31-15 ATS as a road underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 9.5 (-135) because of the "reverse line movement" in the betting market, and the oddsmakers trying to steer bettors away from the Over by making the Under so expensive.
For instance, according to Pregame.com, roughly 70% of the cash and around two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over, but this total is heading south. It's a red flag in sports betting whenever the House makes the more popular side cheaper.
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