Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction
The Milwaukee Brewers (94-62) and St. Louis Cardinals (87-69) open a three-game series Tuesday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Cardinalsodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff (9-10, 2.52 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 175 1/3 IP.
- Held the Cardinals to 1 earned run on 2 hits and 1 walk with 10 strikeouts over 6 innings in a 2-1 loss Sept. 21.
- Top seven among qualified starters in SIERA, xFIP and K-BB%.
Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright (16-7, 3.05 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 200 1/3 IP.
- Gave up 5 earned runs on 4 hits and 2 walks with 1 strikeout through 4 innings Thursday against the Brewers.
- 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 6.3 K/9 over 21 1/3 IP across four starts against Milwaukee.
Brewers at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -145 | U: +115)
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Prediction
Brewers 5, Cardinals 3
Money line (ML)
This is a tough matchup for Milwaukee who was just swept in a four-game home series by St. Louis last week, but despite the sweep and the Cardinals' 16-game win streak, I'm going to back the Brewers Tuesday.
Wainwright and Woodruff have been lights out in the second half of the season, but Woodruff retains the edge. The Brewers' right-hander ranks in the 92nd percentile for HardHit rate and 94th percentile in Average Exit Velocity while ranking in the 84th percentile or better in Chase Rate, K%, xERA and xwOBA; Wainwright is in the 71st or worst percentile by all of those measurements.
The bullpens for each team have performed similarly throughout September, and while the Cardinals have been the better team at the plate Woodruff was dominant against them in his Sept. 21 start.
It's just a small lean, a partial-unit play perhaps, on MILWAUKEE (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Brewers trail just the San Francisco Giants league-wide in road cover percentage as they have posted a 49-26 (65.3%) ATS record away from American Family Field.
I wouldn't get too crazy here as the Cardinals are on a franchise-record win streak, but getting one of baseball's best teams at +140 to win by 2 or more runs has some value - they've done so in six of their seven victories over the Cardinals in the season series.
BREWERS -1.5 (+140) is my play.
Over/Under (O/U)
Wainwright and Woodruff have both put up clunkers against the opposing team in recent meetings - Wainwright allowed 5 earned runs over 4 innings last week, and Woodruff was dinged for 6 earned runs over 5 innings in August. They're not immune to rough starts against their division rival.
This number is a bit too low for me; however, I think it can get there and I lean toward OVER 6.5 (-145).
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