AL Wild Card Game: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

The New York Yankees (92-70) and Boston Red Sox (92-70) begin the 2021 MLB postseason Tuesday, facing off in the American League Wild Card Game. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let's analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Red Sox won 10-9

RHP Gerrit Cole is projected to start for the Yankees. He is 16-8 with a 3.23 ERA (181 1/3 IP, 65 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 30 starts this season.

• Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-5 loss at Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday
• 2021 vs. Red Sox: 2-2, 4.91 ERA (22 IP, 12 ER), 24 H, 9 BB, 31 K in four starts
• Career vs. Red Sox (regular season): 5-3, 3.81 ERA (59 IP, 25 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 10 starts

RHP Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start for Boston. He is 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA (182 1/3 IP, 76 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 32 starts.

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• Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-0 shutout at Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
• 2021 vs. Yankees: 2-2, 3.71 ERA (34 IP, 14 ER), 38 H, 4 BB, 34 K in six starts
• Career vs. Yankees (regular season): 3-4, 3.64 ERA (71 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 8/2 K/9 in 12 starts and three relief appearances

Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:04 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Yankees -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Red Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+125) | Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Red Sox 5, Yankees 3

Money line (ML)

BOSTON (+ 105) is the STRONGEST PLAY - 1½ times your usual wager.

The Red Sox are 7-1 in Eovaldi's last eight starts. However, the loss was when the Yankees lit him up for 7 runs in 2 2/3 innings of an 8-3 setback in Boston Sept. 24 (two starts ago). He responded with his 6 shutout innings at Baltimore Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Yankees' Cole has struggled lately. He is 1-2 with a 7.64 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 15 ER) in his last three starts.

At +105, the value is definitely with BOSTON.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

ATS records: Yankees 76-86 | Red Sox 85-77

AVOID due to too many contradicting trends.

Boston is 39-42 ATS at Fenway; New York is 43-37 ATS on the road.

It was a tale of two seasons in their head-to-head battles in 2021. The Red Sox opened the season series 7-0 straight up/ATS. The Yankees closed the season series 6-0 SU/ATS.

In between, they split 3-3 SU with New York claiming a 5-1 ATS edge.

The Sox won six of the 10 meetings at Fenway Park, but the Yankees covered in six of the 10.

Over/Under (O/U)

O/U records: Yankees 69-88-5 | Red Sox 74-85-3

BET UNDER 8.5 (- 122) to WIN a HALF UNIT.

The Under was 13-6 in their head-to-head series this year, including 3-7 at Fenway.

The Under was also 16-13-1 in Cole's 2021 starts and 16-15-1 in Eovaldi's outings.

Expect a tight game with so much on the line as the loser will be eliminated and the winner will move on to face the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays in an ALDS.

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