UFC Fight Night 194: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez odds, picks and prediction
In a women's strawweight bout in the main event, Mackenzie Dern meets Marina Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night 194 - also known as UFC Vegas 39 - at the UFC's APEX Facility in Las Vegas Saturday. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 194 Dern vs. Rodriguez odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 2 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.
Dern takes the walk to the octagon looking for her fifth consecutive victory.
This will be her first main event bout. Three of her last four fights have finished inside the distance, with all three ending via submission victories. That includes a first-round tap of Nina Nunes last time out in April.
Dern, who is 6-1 at the UFC level, has been a boa constrictor when she can get her counterpart to the mat. She has a 0.51-to-0.28 takedown average advantage over Rodriguez, with a 2.30-to-0.14 submission average lead.
Rodriguez's best bet is to keep the fight upright. She has a 4.89-to-3.64 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Rodriguez stopped the "Karate Hottie", Michelle Waterson, via unanimous decision last time out in May. She has two straight wins, including a second-round KO/TKO against Amanda Ribas at UFC 257.
Since arriving at the UFC level, she is 4-1-2 with six fights going the distance.
UFC Fight Night 194 Dern vs. Rodriguez: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line) : Dern -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Rodriguez +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Over/Under : 2.5 rounds (Over -110 | Under -125)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +200 | No -290)
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UFC Fight Night 194 Dern vs. Rodriguez: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Dern (11-1-0) | Rodriguez (14-1-2)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Dern (-205) will cost you over two times your potential return on the 2-way line, and that's just too expensive against a fighter with just one loss in 17 career professional bouts.
However, I don't think Rodriguez has the defense if this fight goes to the canvas. DERN BY SUBMISSION (+102) at near even money is the best bet on the board here.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-290): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too expensive for my liking. I do like OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-110) for a better value, as I think Dern can tap Rodriguez but expect her to hang around and make it interesting.
In addition, take a two-round block with DERN TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+800) and DERN TO WIN IN ROUND 4 (+1200). Yes, you'll lose one of those ends, even if Dern wins in Rounds 3-4, but you'll still be well ahead.
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