Purdue at Iowa odds, picks and prediction
The No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-0, 3-0 in Big Ten) host the Purdue Boilermakers (3-2, 1-1) Saturday at Kinnick Stadium for a conference clash. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Purdue vs. Iowa odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Purdue was upset at home Oct. 2 by the Minnesota Golden Gophers 20-13 as a 1.5-point favorite. The Boilermakers are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) and 0-5 Over/Under (O/U) with their other loss being on the road vs. the No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 27-13 in Week 3.
Iowa scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to come back and beat the No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions 23-20 at home last time out (Oct. 9). The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U with the 10th-toughest strength of schedule, according to USA TODAY's Jeff Sagarin.
The Boilermakers have covered four straight vs. Iowa (3-1 overall) and five straight at Kinnick Stadium.
Purdue at Iowa odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:46 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Purdue +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Iowa -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Purdue +11.5 (-112) | Iowa -11.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 42.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Purdue at Iowa odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa 23, Purdue 17
Money line
PASS with a slight "lean" to Purdue (+400) since I like the Boilermakers plus the points and generally want to sprinkle on the underdog's money line when taking it to cover.
Against the spread
BET PURDUE +11.5 (-112) for 1 unit for a bevy of reasons.
This is a "Pros vs. Joe's" game in the betting market with nearly 60% of the cash being wagered on Purdue but more than three-fourths of bets placed are on Iowa, according to Pregame.com.
Purdue has outgained its opponent in every game this season. Plus, the Boilermakers have a higher non-garbage time predicted points added (PPA) differential and are better in high-leverage situations (third down and in the red zone).
This is a bad spot for Iowa, which is coming off a tough primetime game against Penn State and having to play a Purdue squad that's given the Hawkeyes fits in recent seasons.
The Boilermakers are coming out of a bye week. Since Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm was hired in 2017, the Boilermakers are 5-3 ATS with a rest advantage (plus-6.6 spread differential) and are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs (plus-8.3 spread differential).
Over/Under
"LEAN" to the UNDER 42.5 (-110) for a half unit only because we are getting to the party late. Purdue-Iowa opened with a 45.5-point total, but there's been " sharp line movement" toward the Under, which has pushed the total down the current price.
Everyone knows how good this Iowa defense is, but this Purdue defense isn't too shabby. The Boilermakers have the 13th-ranked defensive passer efficiency rating, 21st-ranked non-garbage time defensive PPA and the third-best non-garbage time defensive success rate.
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