Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and prediction
The Philadelphia 76ers (3-2) hosts the Atlanta Hawks (3-2) Friday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off at Wells Fargo Center. Below, we look at the Hawks vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
This is a rematch of last season's Eastern Conference Semifinals series where the Hawks upset the 76ers in seven games. It was this series that initiated the current beef with Ben Simmons and the Philadelphia organization that has led to Simmons' current sabbatical.
Atlanta was drubbed by a short-handed Washington Wizards team 122-111 as 4-point road favorites Thursday. The Hawks were outrebounded 51-43, had four more turnovers, and shot just 28.6 percent from 3-point land vs. the Wizards.
Philly has alternated between winning and covering over the past four games (1-3 against the spread) with the latest being a 110-102 victory over the Detroit Pistons Thursday, but the Sixers failed to cover as 11-point favorites.
The 76ers beat and covered vs. the Hawks in two of three regular-season meetings last year, but Atlanta won the playoff series against Philly 4-3 overall and covered the spread in all four victories.
Hawks at 76ers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Hawks +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | 76ers -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Hawks +3.5 (-108) | 76ers -3.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Hawks at 76ers key injuries
Hawks
- SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) probable
- C Onyeka Okongwu (shoulder) out
76ers
- C Joel Embiid (knee) questionable
- PG Ben Simmons (personal) out
Hawks at 76ers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Hawks 111, 76ers 103
Money line
"LEAN" to the HAWKS (+140) for a small wager because I "like" Atlanta plus the points and there's value in the underdog's money line here.
Also, the Hawks do a good job defending Philly's style whereas the Sixers do not defend what Atlanta does a lot of.
For instance, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, Philly shoots the fifth-highest volume of mid-range field goals but Atlanta has the third-best defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range attempts.
Furthermore, the Hawks get out in transition at the seventh-highest frequency in the league and the Sixers allow the seventh-worst points per possession in transition.
Lastly, the absence of Simmons' defensive prowess could play a major role in this contest. Atlanta's Trae Young could have a big game vs. Philly's weak defensive backcourt. In fact, these teams, positionally, stack up well against each other and the only glaring mismatch is at point guard.
Against the spread
Definitely BET HAWKS +3.5 (-108) instead of or heavier than Atlanta's money line because it has way more value.
Obviously, this is bigger than your average regular-season game for both teams and it's just wise to take the 3.5 since this game could come down to the wire.
Over/Under
"LEAN" to the UNDER 216.5 (-107) for a half unit because based on how these teams played last year, how they matchup this season and the current O/U trends in the NBA.
There's a new NBA policy that is trying to officiate unnatural offensive movements out of the game. As a result, free-throw shooting is down and Unders are cashing at a 63.2 percent rate in the NBA thus far.
This affects both sides since each team's leading scorer from last year-Trae and Embiid-both were in the top-5 of free-throw attempts per game.
On top of that, the Hawks-76ers total has already been lowered 2 points from the opening number of 218.5. Until sportsbooks adjust to the new officiating-which it will-the UNDER 216.5 (-110) is the only play for the total.
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