World Series Game 5: Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction
The Atlanta Braves hope to close out the World Series Sunday when they host the Houston Astros in Game 5. First pitch is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let's analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Braves Game 5odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta leads the best-of-seven series 3-1 after Saturday's 3-2 win in Game 4. Braves SS Dansby Swanson and pinch-hitter Jorge Soler hit back-to-back solo homers with one out in the bottom of the seventh inning Saturday night to turn a 2-1 deficit into the one-run lead that ended up being the final score.
LHP Framber Valdez is Sunday's projected starter. In the postseason, Valdez is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA (17 IP, 12 ER), 24 H, 6 BB and 15 K.
He took a loss in Game 1 of the World Series with a stat line of 2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K with 2 HR allowed.
Atlanta's LHP Tucker Davidson makes his postseason debut in what will likely be a "bullpen day" for the home team.
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Davidson only made four regular-season starts this year. He was 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA (20 IP, 8 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9.
Astros at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:03 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+133) | Braves +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Prediction
Braves 5, Astros 2
Money line (ML)
BET the BRAVES (+100) because they are a perfect 7-0 at home this postseason, 9-4 overall as home underdogs and I like how Atlanta's lineup stacks up against Valdez.
Valdez pitches to contact and has an absurdly high 70.1% groundball rate (the MLB average groundball rate is 42.8%). He grades in the 37th percentile of K%, 11th percentile in both chase rate and ninth percentile of hard-hit rate.
But you don't want contact against these Braves mashers. Also, Atlanta's lineup is deeper and the National League no-DH rule obviously benefits the Braves.
GIMME the BRAVES (+100).
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a heavy "lean" to the Braves +1.5 (-165) because I'd love some insurance for our wager on Atlanta's money line. Especially because the Braves have the best cover rate this year as home underdogs at 10-3 ATS.
However, the Braves +1.5 (-165) needs to be south of -150 for me to lay it with Atlanta's run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) for a small wager solely to fade a market that's hammering the Over.
According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action is on the Over but the total hasn't budged since opening. In fact, several sportsbooks have made the Under more expensive despite all the pro-Over money.
Game 4 went Under with a similar pitching matchup and betting splits. Houston sent out a starter with mediocre stuff, while Atlanta had a "bullpen day" using pitchers with limited playoff experience.
Roughly 75% of the action was on the Over (according to Pregame.com), but playoff pitching prevailed Saturday. That said, I'd only "LEAN" to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) since my handicap lacks baseball-based logic.
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