Illinois at Iowa odds, picks and prediction
The Illinois Fighting Illini (4-6, 3-4 Big Ten) and No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-2, 5-2) battle in a Saturday afternoon game in Iowa City, Iowa. The contest at Kinnick Stadium is slated for a 2 p.m. ET kickoff. Below, we look at the Illinois vs. Iowa odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Illinois pulled off an upset win at Minnesota two Saturdays back. Now - after a bye week - the winner of two straight road games heads to Iowa City. The Illini tote an improving defense with them. U of I has yielded just 4.4 yards per play over its last three contests.
The Hawkeyes defeated Minnesota 27-22 last Saturday. In a game that was close throughout, Iowa was outgained 409 yards to 277. The Hawkeyes were perhaps fortunate to score even 27 points, and they have now averaged just 16.2 points per game since Oct. 1.
Going by total yardage, both of these teams rank in the bottom 15 in FBS offensively.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Illinois at Iowa odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:29 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Illinois +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Iowa -475 (bet $475 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Illinois +12.5 (-110) | Iowa -12.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 38.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Illinois at Iowa odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa 31, Illinois 14
Money line
Iowa hasn't lost to Illinois at Kinnick Stadium since 1999. An 80% win probability is in the right neighborhood for this one, so anything pricier than -400 will fail to bring value. PASS.
Against the spread
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five-Illinois-Iowa games.
The Illinois offense ranks in the nation's bottom 10 in success rate - staying on schedule and avoiding third-and-long situations. The Iowa defense ranks in the top 10 in that same measure. The Hawkeyes defense allows just 3.0 yards per attempt on the ground, and the run game accounts for more than 60% of the Illini's play mix.
When Iowa has the ball, the Hawkeyes are up against a defense that ranks in the bottom 40 in success rate and in causing havoc. Illinois' 21.6 points per game allowed (35th FBS) is a misnomer. The home side winning by 14-plus - in a game with no Illinois head coach Bret Bielema (out with COVID-19) running the sideline on the other side - is just likely enough to make IOWA -12.5 (-110) worth a partial-unit play.
Over/Under
The Under has hit in eight straight Illinois games, and is 12-4-1 in the Illini's last 17. Look for a push-back here against a low total.
With some fade of the Illini defense and on a decent weather day in Iowa City, BACK THE OVER 38.5 (-107).
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