College football Hot Tix and Picks: Georgia pins Alabama into rare underdog role. Can Bulldogs cash in?

With the College Football Playoff field and conference championships hinging on this weekend’s action, high stakes are generating immense wagers. 

Among this week’s most popular tickets at multiple sports books are No. 1 Georgia and its No. 2 SEC-title rival Alabama. 

Georgia’s remarkable defense has paced the Bulldogs to a 12-0 showing, making them the most lopsided favorite over the Crimson Tide since 2008 – an event that triggered an outburst of opinions backed by cash. 

“It’s obviously the biggest-bet game we have and most of the money is on Georgia,” said BetMGM’s Director of Trading Jeff Stoneback. “You know how the public can be … the last thing they saw was Alabama struggling to win in overtime against Auburn. 

“Yet, Alabama being an underdog is such a rarity in the Nick Saban era. The game has such major implications … that’s why it’s the marquee game of the weekend.”

With No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Cincinnati also needing conference-title victories to retain their CFP spots, the consequences are widespread across the college map as major bowl-game assignments are getting settled this weekend. 

This week’s college football edition of Hot Tix and Picks shrugs off a losing rivalry week and inspects the action leading mobile sports betting sites are taking on this momentous first weekend of December.

CFP SCENARIOS:How this weekend's conference title games will shape playoff

WEEK 14:College football picks and bold predictions

First, “Hot Tix,” the most popular betting slips: 

(All point spreads furnished by Tipico Sportsbook and all rankings are from USA Today Sports’ AFCA Coaches Poll:)

No. 1 Georgia -6.5 vs. No. 2 Alabama

4 p.m. ET Saturday, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Despite the historic underdog position of Alabama, it is hard to wash the mind of Crimson Tide and quarterback Bryce Young standing there with just three points on the board late in the fourth quarter of last week’s Iron Bowl. 

This over-under is 49.5 and the significant support for Alabama – particularly as a money-line bet -- reveals the expectation for additional touchdowns this week. 

More than that, the drama of Georgia’s bid for validation over the SEC (and nation’s) longtime ruler defines this contest. 

“The public is on Georgia to cover here for one obvious reason: Georgia has destroyed everyone in its path,” said Tipico spokesman Sunny Gupta. “It has become increasingly difficult to predict their margin of victory. With the private channel seed on the line, the public seems to think Alabama will be another casualty of Georgia's historic season.” 

No. 3 Michigan -10.5 vs. No. 12 Iowa

8 p.m. ET Saturday, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

Their fan base’s presence was always known, but it has risen from subdued in the shadow of Ohio State to full-blown following the Wolverines vanquishing the Buckeyes last week. 

Now, with one more win over a conference rival, Michigan and Coach Jim Harbaugh are in the final four, and their supporters are putting their money where their heart is. 

“The Michigan bandwagon has been something to see,” BetMGM’s Stoneback said.  

Tipico has noticed sharp bettors supporting Iowa with an alternate -9.5 line. 

“(They) likely see a letdown spot here for Michigan after coming off its biggest win during the Harbaugh era," Gupta said. “Iowa boasts one of the best defenses in the country, which will likely help them keep this game close.” 

The over-under is indeed low at 43.5. 

No. 18 Wake Forest vs. No. 15 Pittsburgh over 71

8 p.m. ET Saturday, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

The Demon Deacons seem to score 40 points on auto-pilot, and Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett can flex his Heisman Trophy and NFL Draft worthiness here with the ACC title on the line. 

Pitt has scored more than 30 points in each of its past five games. 

Gupta’s analysis: “Kenny Pickett and Sam Hartman have led two of the best passing offenses in the country, leading the public to (believe this) should be a shootout.” 

No. 16 Houston +10.5 at No. 4 Cincinnati

4 p.m. Saturday, Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio

The host Bearcats seek a CFP spot by winning the AAC championship, but Houston has won eight of its 11 games by double digits. 

With Cincinnati only two games removed from a turn to ordinary, Tipico’s Gupta sees public bettors distrustful of the Bearcats’ CFP mettle. The total has shrunk in betting from 56 to 52.5. 

“This would likely be a College Football Playoff play-in game had Houston not lost its season opener to Texas Tech," he said. “(They're) on Houston to cover, likely viewingdefense as a major factor. Houston is fourth in the country in sacks, and looks to give (Cincinnati quarterback) Desmond Ridder all he can handle.” 

No. 17 Utah -2.5 vs. No. 10 Oregon

8 p.m. ET Friday, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

Two weeks ago the Utes knocked the visiting Ducks from the CFP top four with a convincing 38-7 triumph we had among our Hot Picks.

With that prize gone now, can Oregon produce a resurrected effort in pursuit of a Rose Bowl bid? 

The casual bettors and the sharp players are saying no. 

“The public (is) on Utah here because of the very recent beatdown,” Gupta said. “Utah has lost its only two appearances in the Pac-12 championship game. Third time's a charm? With Oregon having won the last two titles and its (CFP) chances dead, don't be surprised if Utah comes to the game more motivated in (another) decisive victory.” 

And now for our Hot Picks, which considers where sharp bettors and insiders believe money should go: 

No. 19 San Diego State -6 vs. Utah State

3 p.m. ET Saturday, Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, Calif.

Another line-move system game after the Aztecs (11-1) opened as 3.5-point favorites. 

Riding a four-game winning streak, San Diego State pursues its first Mountain West Conference title since going back-to-back in 2015-2016. 

Utah State has never won the conference crown. 

No. 5 Oklahoma State -5.5 vs. No. 9 Baylor, Noon Eastern Saturday at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas: The Cowboys are on the brink of a CFP spot should they win the Big 12 Championship impressively. 

The game’s totals has also received significant support, dropping from 49 at some shops to 46.5 at Tipico. 

“It seems a tad low to me, but Oklahoma State’s defense has been so great up until last week (against Oklahoma),” said Caesars Sportsbook’s Pullen. 

Gupta believes his bettors are drawn to the Cowboys because of the CFP repercussions. There’s more to that, as well, as he notes, “Oklahoma State already beat Baylor by 10 points in early October, led by Jaylen Warren on the ground. With a top-tier rushing attack and defense, (the Cowboys) look to repeat.” 

Western Kentucky -3.5 at UT San Antonio

7 p.m. ET Friday, the Alamodome, San Antonio

The Hilltoppers’ scoring prowess and seven-game winning streak have provoked bettors to support them heavily, moving a line that opened at some shops with UTSA favored by 2.5 in this Conference USA title game.

“UTSA won at Western Kentucky earlier this season, but they’ve been trending down,” said Caesars Sportsbook Director of Trading Adam Pullen. “It seems like the fortunes of both teams are going in opposite directions, and some people think it’s difficult to beat a team twice in the same season.” 

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