NBA

Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Charlotte Hornets (13-11) travel to the "Big Peach" Sunday to play the Atlanta Hawks (12-11) at the State Farm Arena. The tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Hornets vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Charlotte enters on a three-game losing skid, all on the road, with the losses being to the Houston Rockets, Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks. The Hornets are 13-11 ATS and 14-10 O/U with the 17th-ranked net rating.

Atlanta has alternated between winning and losing over the past four games with the latest being a heartbreaking 98-96 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers Friday. The Hawks are 10-13 ATS and 11-12 O/U with the ninth-best net rating.

Atlanta handled business in the first meeting of the season with Charlotte, 115-105 Nov. 20, as 7-point home favorites. The Hawks are 3-2 overall and 2-2-1 ATS vs. the Hornets since the beginning of last season. The Under has cashed in four of those meetings.

Hornets at Hawks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Money line: Hornets +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Hawks -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Hornets +6.5 (-107) | Hawks -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Hornets at Hawks key injuries

Hornets

PG LaMelo Ball (health and safety protocols) out
SG Terry Rozier (health and safety protocols) out
C Mason Plumlee (health and safety protocols) out
PF Jalen McDaniels (health and safety protocols) out

Hawks

SG Kevin Huerter (quadriceps) questionable
SF Cam Reddish (illness) questionable
PG Trae Young (quadriceps) questionable
SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) out
SF De'Andre Hunter (wrist) out

Hornets at Hawks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Hornets 114, Hawks 109

Money line

I'm okay with a tiny wager on the HORNETS (+230), but be sure to bet Charlotte plus the points heavier or instead of the money line. The bottom line is I like the value in Charlotte at +6.5 because it feels like an Atlanta trap.

The Hawks have the third-best efficiency differential and fifth-best ATS margin at home this season. The Hornets are missing two of their three leading scorers. But, this Hornets-Hawks meeting is priced the same as the first.

That tells me there's a decent chance Trae and/or Huerter miss Sunday's meeting, and Atlanta's backcourt edge will be gone. If Trae suits up, the Hawks' price will soar.

Regardless, Atlanta is missing depth on the wing, which is a stacked position for Charlotte. The absence of Ball and Rozier opens the door for more Miles Bridges and Gordon Hayward usage. Bridges put up 35 points on 53.6% shooting in the first Hornets-Hawks meeting.

Again, if you take HORNETS (+230), go lightly and hit Charlotte's spread harder.

Against the spread

Definitely BET HORNETS +6.5 (-107) heavier than or instead of Charlotte's money line. The Hornets are 8-4 ATS vs. teams with a winning record while the Hawks are just 2-7 ATS.

Furthermore, I could see this being a letdown game for Atlanta, who just played a tough, physical rematch of last year's second-round playoff series with Philly Friday.

That was an emotional primetime game, and I could see the Hawks struggling to get up for this game knowing several Hornets contributors are on the COVID list.

Over/Under

PASS since we don't officially know who's playing in this game, and I'd prefer to play the sides because of all the aforementioned logic.

My hunch is that the market will be betting the Under because of the possible absences of several offensive players. If that's the case then I'd "lean" to the Over as a fade of that overreaction.

However, since that's only speculative, I'll PASS ON THE TOTAL.

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