NBA

Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Denver Nuggets (11-11) visit the Windy City Monday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at United Center with the Chicago Bulls (16-8). Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Bulls odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

This is Denver's fourth game of a seven-game road trip and the Nuggets are 2-1 overall and ATS thus far. Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic returned from a strained wrist injury to start the road swing. The Nuggets are 9-13 ATS and 11-11 O/U with the 16th-best net rating.

Chicago has won four of the past five games including three straight over the Charlotte Hornets, New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets. The Bulls are 16-8 ATS and 11-13 O/U with the fourth-best net rating.

The Bulls beat the Nuggets 114-108 in their first meeting of the season (Nov. 19), but Jokic didn't suit up for that game. Chicago's two leading scorers- Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan-combined for 62 points against Denver earlier this season.

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Nuggets at Bulls odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:36 a.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Bulls -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +3.5 (-105) | Bulls -3.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Nuggets at Bulls key injuries

Nuggets

SG Austin Rivers (health and safety protocols) out

Bulls

SG Alex Caruso (hamstring) doubtful
PG Coby White (health and safety protocols) out

Nuggets at Bulls odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bulls 117, Nuggets 106

Money line

PASS with a heavy "lean" toward the Bulls (-175) because they match up very well against the Nuggets and this is on the fringe of my price range for an NBA regular-season money line favorite.

However, the Bulls match up so well with the Nuggets that I'll chase the value with Chicago's spread instead of spending extra for the pricey money line.

Against the spread

BETBULLS -3.5 (-120) because there are a few strength-on-weaknesses edges for Chicago.

The Bulls can pick-and-roll the Nuggets to death. Chicago runs the fifth-most pick-and-roll action through both the ball handler and the roll man. Denver's pick-and-roll defense vs. the roll man grades in the 34.5th percentile and 27.6th percentile vs. the ball handler.

According to ShotQuality.com, Chicago generates the fourth-most shots out of pick-and-roll screens, while Denver's defense allows the second-worst shot quality vs. pick-and-roll screens.

Also, the Bulls should feast in the mid-range. Chicago's top-two scorers (LaVine and DeRozan) operate in the mid-range and the Bulls attempt the sixth-highest volume of mid-range jumpers, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Denver is 26th in defensive field-goal percentage vs. mid-range field goals.

The only hesitation I have with the BULLS -3.5 (-120) is the significant "reverse line movement" in Denver's direction. A vast majority of the market is hammering Chicago here but the Bulls are getting cheaper. It's a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Chicago's edges over Denver in this matchup are too overwhelming to pass on the BULLS -3.5 (-120).

Over/Under

PASS because the Over 217.5 (-108) is my preferred play on the total but we'd be getting to the party too late. The Nuggets-Bulls game opened with a 214-point total but has been steamed up by the market.

The basketball logic for the Over is Chicago will get buckets through pick-and-roll action and mid-range jumpers. But Denver runs a lot of post plays and is highly efficient in post-up offense whereas Chicago's defense can struggle vs. post-up offense.

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