NBA

Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Washington Wizards (14-10) stop by Gainbridge Fieldhouse Monday for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off against the Indiana Pacers (9-16). Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Pacers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Washington has lost three of its last four (1-3 ATS) including back-to-back games against the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday and the Toronto Raptors Sunday. The Wizards are 12-12 ATS and 10-14 O/U with the 19th-best net rating.

Indiana enters on a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) with losses to the Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat. The Pacers are 12-13 ATS and 11-14 O/U with the 14th-best net rating.

The Wizards outdueled the Pacers 135-134 in overtime Oct. 22. Washington won three of the "four factors" in that game and was without All-Star guard Bradley Beal.

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Wizards at Pacers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Wizards +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Pacers -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +5.5 (-120) | Pacers -5.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Wizards at Pacers key injuries

Wizards (not officially submitted)

C Thomas Bryant (knee) out
PF Rui Hachimura (personal) out

Pacers

PG T.J. McConnell (wrist) out
SF T.J. Warren (foot) out
SG Justin Holiday (illness) out

Wizards at Pacers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Pacers 106, Wizards 102

Money line

PASS because I only "lean" towards Washington covering the spread and cannot fully endorse a Wizards (+165) wager. Something about this game, or more specifically these odds, is throwing me off. I'd understand Indiana's money line getting as high as -175 but the current price is too expensive.

I'd assume the oddsmakers are saying this is a "scheduled loss" for the Wizards who just played Sunday and this will be their fifth game in the last seven days. Washington is 2-3 overall when playing with a rest disadvantage with a minus-6.0 margin of victory.

Against the spread

"LEAN" to the WIZARDS +5.5 (-120) because a majority of the market is backing the road underdog in this game according to the Yahoo! Sports app, and I hate following the herd in sports betting.

However, the Wizards outplayed the Pacers in their first meeting of the season without Beal. That was also just the second game of the season for Washington who has a first-year head coach and was incorporating a bunch of new players acquired in the Russell Westbrook trade this offseason.

The Wizards have a much higher effective field goal shooting differential than the Pacers and Washington has a strength-on-weakness edge over Indiana. For instance, the Wizards are eighth in offensive FT/FGA rate and the Pacers are 24th in defensive FT/FGA rate.

Washington is also much better in tight games. The Wizards are 11-1 overall in clutch situations with the fourth-best net rating (plus-20.9) while the Pacers are 3-12 overall with the 26th-best net rating (plus-22.0). "Clutch" is defined by games within a 5-point margin with five minutes remaining.

I like Washington to pick up the victory if this game is close and could look for some fourth-quarter in-game wagers to make. However, preflop, the WIZARDS +5.5 (-120) are getting too many points to pass up.

Over/Under

" LEAN" to the UNDER 210.5 (-115) because the market is barreling into the Over according to the Yahoo! Sports App since the Over has cashed in five straight Wizards-Pacers meetings. The lowest-scoring Wizards-Pacers contest over that five-game span was a combined 257 points.

Oddsmakers pricing this total at 210.5 and moving it when the market comes in heavy on the Over tells me the value is on the UNDER 210.5 (-115). Stylistically, the Under makes more sense in a Wizards-Pacers game.

Both teams play at a below-average pace and both teams have a better defensive eFG% than offensive. Each team also runs a top-six volume of half-court offense and bottom-seven volume of transition basketball.

The UNDER 210.5 (-115) is my preferred play in the Wizards-Pacers game because it's even fishier than the Wizards +5.5 (-115).

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