NFL

NFL Prop Bets Payday: Week 14 player prop picks and predictions

John Holler

Sportsbook Wire

Coming off a 5-0 week, the holiday gifts are getting better for the family. I'm hoping to ride that same wave this week by using the same formula - spreading out the bets on numbers that surprise me when I see them. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 14, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Week 14 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:45 a.m. ET.

Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-116)

Hill can be a frustrating player to project because many defenses double him up, and typically, he and fellow prop-bet darling Travis Kelce rarely both have big yardage games in the same game as defenses pick their poison. The Raiders play more man coverage than most teams, and Hill has surpassed this number in his last three meetings and four of the last five. What gives prop bettors confidence when taking Hill is that he capable of eating up half or more of the total needed in one catch, and this a favorable matchup to have at least one big play over the top.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady UNDER 307.5 passing yards (-114)

Of all the quarterbacks in the league, nobody has had more Over/Under lines north of 300 yards than Brady. It's a weekly test of the G.O.A.T.'s ability. There are a couple of reasons I'm liking the Under on this one. While Brady owned the Bills while in New England, their defense is innately familiar with him. He hit the Over on this number just once in his last six games against Buffalo and, with the Bucs this season, he has topped 307.5 yards just once in the last four games and twice in the last seven. He went off for 356 yards last week, but that was against Atlanta - a ratty defense that gets shelled like a peanut more weeks than not. Buffalo is fighting for its playoff life at the moment and won't make things easy for TB12.

Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews OVER 4.5 receptions (-156)

Typically I don't like making the kind of investment to limit the return (betting $156 to win $100), but this should have been at 5.5 receptions in my humble view. Andrews has beaten this number in three of his last four meetings with the Browns, and given the teams met just two weeks ago, the Ravens offense has fresh film to go off of on how to exploit openings in the defense. While Andrews is used as a downfield weapon, he can also be used to find soft spots in the zone to be a check-down receiver. That's a good combination when only needing five catches to hit the Over. If the oddsmakers who made the Browns the favorite in this game are correct, Lamar Jackson will need Andrews to come up big. He has been targeted eight or more times in each of the last five games, and I think he can catch more than half of the throws at that rate.

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Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb UNDER 5.5 receptions (-123)

Lamb has emerged as the go-to guy for the Cowboys offense, but Dallas has all of its weapons at its disposal for one of the few times all seasons. Dak Prescott has more than 23 completions in just one game in his career against Washington, and he has to feed Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz and the running backs. The cornerback covering Lamb is likely to get safety help over the top, and six is a bit much to expect - despite hitting that number several times this season. Division games tend to be played close to the vest, and Lamb will get close, but hitting six will take some doing.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers UNDER 262.5 passing yards (-114)

This number isn't that difficult to hit, but the Bears defense has consistently kept opposing quarterbacks under this number much of the season despite their numerous struggles - including holding Rodgers to 195 yards earlier this season. While this number is clearly within Rodgers' reach, the fact of the matter is that he hasn't come close to this point in his last five meetings with the Bears, including four with 211 passing yards or less. All five of those games have been wins, and you get the feeling this one will be similar - a Packers win, but one where Rodgers isn't needed to throw 40 times to get the job done.

Also see:All Week 14 odds and lines

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