NFL hot tix and picks: Separating truth from fiction as the finish line nears

In a season fraught with underdog victories, low-scoring games and a free-for-all in pursuit of the Vince Lombardi Trophy, Week 14 can provide some clarity in separating the contenders from the pretenders. 

In this week’s “NFL Hot Tix and Picks,” a survey of the nation’s sportsbooks, the betting action on some of those pivotal games reflects interest in which teams will emerge. 

The leading games include the defending-champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the sliding Buffalo Bills and a key NFC West battle Monday night between the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams. 

Some watershed matchups are also generating serious wagering. Those games include the Cleveland Browns and NFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens, the San Francisco 49ers venturing to meet sore-handed Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals and the charging Washington Football Team at home to the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys.

First, let’s assess the week’s “Hot Picks,” those games that are drawing the most voluminous action from the public. (All point spreads and over/under totals furnished by Tipico Sportsbook):

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Buffalo Bills 

4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla. 

The optics of the Bills’ 14-10 home loss to Bill Belichick and the ground-dependent New England Patriots last week injured their AFC East title chances and perhaps revealed some panic as Buffalo continues through the teethy part of its schedule. 

No one shows less mercy than Tom Brady, who has his team on a three-game win streak and within a game of the NFC lead. Brady is especially good against the Bills, owning a 32-3 record against them. 

Tampa Bay is the future-book favorite to win the Super Bowl (+500) at Tipico while preseason favorite Buffalo has fallen to become the sixth choice at +1000. 

“Bills-Bucs for sure will be the top handle game Sunday,” Caesars Sportsbook Assistant Director of Trading Adam Pullen said after a Nevada bettor put $240,000 on the Buccaneers at -3 to win $200,000.

RELATED:'It's not a Bill Belichick-type thing': Bills coach Sean McDermott diminishes impact of Patriots coach after loss

Green Bay Packers -12.5 vs. Chicago Bears 

8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc. 

The Sunday night game typically draws the significant action this one is getting despite the fact that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers remains committed to “owning” his NFC North division rival. 

The Packers (5-0 at home) are in that fervent chase for the NFC bye with Tampa Bay and Arizona, and the public support has lifted the line closer to two touchdowns as Bears rookie quarterback Justin Fields returns to the starter’s role after missing two games with a cracked rib.

MORE:Aaron Rodgers downplays, but doesn't regret, 'I own you' comments vs. Chicago Bears

Dallas Cowboys -4.5 vs. Washington Football Team 

1 p.m. ET Sunday, FedEx Field, Landover, Md. 

On the heels of a come-from-behind road victory in Las Vegas last week, Washington (6-6) has now won four straight and has another crack at division-leading Dallas (8-4) Dec. 26. 

With bettors tuned to the strong performance of road teams this season, 87% of dollars at Caesars Sportsbook has been on the Cowboys while the Las Vegas Superbook and BetMGM also slot Dallas as a top-five choice of the public.

'LET'S ROLL':Washington Football Team gains momentum at right time

Tennessee Titans -8.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 

1 p.m. ET Sunday, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn. 

The AFC South-leading Titans have dropped two straight games without Derrick Henry and receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, so the thinking here is that some normalcy can be regained at home against the last-place Jaguars (0-5 on the road).

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns OVER 42.5 points 

1 p.m. ET Sunday, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland 

The Browns (6-6) return from a bye that followed their 16-10 loss at Baltimore Nov. 28. On a clear and brisk afternoon in Cleveland, the public expectation is that the Browns’ ground game and Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson will rack up more than six touchdowns worth of points. 

The Ravens have a one-game lead on Cincinnati after both teams lost Sunday, triggering a massive 98% of dollars wagered on the spread to be on the Browns. 

The line has moved from an opening pick ‘em to the Browns at -2.5, with a Nevada bettor at Caesars Sportsbook placing $357,000 on Cleveland.

FOR THE WIN:The Ravens made the AFC playoff picture a beautiful mess

As for this week’s “Hot Picks,” the teams/totals backed most heavily by sharp bettors, the Bengals are indeed being targeted as wounded prey. 

San Francisco 49ers -1.5 at Cincinnati Bengals 

4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati 

The agony that Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow expressed due to the pain of his right pinkie during Sunday’s home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers was immense, and it’s fueling a three-point line move after the Bengals opened as 1.5-point favorites at home. 

“People might be thinking (Burrow’s finger) is a bigger issue than what’s been talked about,” Caesars’ Pullen said. “I’m a little surprised that the 49ers (after losing at Seattle last week) are a road favorite. This seems like a prime bounce-back spot for a good team like the Bengals.” 

Yet, the sharp players are supporting San Francisco strongly at BetMGM. The 49ers are in the thick of the NFC wild-card race and are 4-2 on the road.

RELATED:Joe Burrow ‘disappointed’ in number of turnovers as Bengals in thick of playoff hunt

Denver Broncos -10 vs. Detroit Lions 

4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Empower Field at Mile High, Denver 

The Lions achieved their first victory last week with a last-play touchdown pass from Jared Goff, but the wise players are unmoved, confident the high elevation and a home team battling for a playoff spot will prove overwhelming.

Los Angeles Rams +2.5 at Arizona Cardinals 

8:15 p.m. ET Monday, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz. 

The Rams ended their three-game losing skid – albeit against the Jaguars – and now confront a must-win scenario in their pursuit of the Cardinals (10-2), who lead the NFC West by two games. 

The Cardinals are not only positioned as the fifth favorite at Tipico to win the Super Bowl (+750), but they are 9-3 against the spread. 

“The public still views the Rams as a top team, but the Cardinals have been more consistent,” Caesars’ Pullen said. 

Public action elsewhere has secured Cardinals’ support, but the astute sharps at the Las Vegas Superbook have made the Rams their fourth-most popular choice.

REPORTERS' ROUNDTABLE:Can Rams contain Kyler Murray, fight back in NFC East race?

MORE:'This is definitely a huge game for us': Cardinals look to stamp ticket to playoffs Monday night

New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers OVER 42.5 points 

4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif. 

The Giants’ use of a backup quarterback on the road and the Chargers’ COVID-19 concerns lowered the total number, and the bettors have pounced. 

There’s sound logic here, given the effectiveness of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert – who retains substantial downfield threats – and the vulnerabilities of the Chargers defense.

MORE:New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Chargers picks, predictions: Who wins NFL Week 14 game?

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers UNDER 41.5 points 

1 p.m. ET Sunday, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. 

Two ill-performing offenses have drawn sharp traffic on this game at BetMGM, as has the day’s lowest under – the 40.5 of the Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans. 

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