NBA

Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers odds, picks and predictions

Nathan Beighle

Sportsbook Wire

The Miami Heat (16-11) travel to Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse Monday to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers (16-12). Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Cavaliers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Cavaliers have far exceeded expectations so far this season behind G Darius Garland and hopeful All-Star C Jarrett Allen. Cleveland is 7-3 over its last 10 games and is fifth place in the Eastern Conference.

The Cavs have been dominant some of the best defensive play in the league. That's also helped them to be the best ATS team in the league at 21-5-2. The Heat are 16-11 ATS, tied for the fifth-best ATS record.

Miami will continue to be without its top two threats tonight, although they've played well without them. The Heat will also be absent F Caleb Martin, who has played a big role in a few of their short-handed victories.

The Heat are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs; the Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS as home favorites.

Heat at Cavaliers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:04 a.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Cavaliers -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +5.5 (-115) | Cavaliers -5.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 207.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Heat at Cavaliers key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
F Jimmy Butler (tailbone) out
F Caleb Martin (health and safety protocols) out

Cavaliers

G Collin Sexton (knee) out

Heat at Cavaliers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Cavaliers 108, Heat 102

Money line

PASS.

I like the Cavs too much to find value in the Heat at +170. However, Miami has seen success without Adebayo and Butler which makes Cleveland (-210) not a great value.

Look toward the spread in this one.

Against the spread

"LEAN" to the CAVALIERS -5.5 (-107).

It's the riskier side but the Cavs have yet to not cover as home favorites despite just a 7-7 SU home record so I'll continue to roll with them. They've been the most profitable ATS team in the league by a wide margin.

The Heat will have a tough time on the glass as Allen will be able to dominate the paint with Adebayo sidelined. Furthermore, the Heat have used ultra-hot shooting, scoring 113 and 118 points in their last two games.

Regressing to the mean is bound to happen, and I'll take the team that's better defensively and should have the advantage on the glass. The Cavs beat Miami by 26 on the road when these teams met Dec. 1.

Over/Under

BET on the OVER 207.5 (-115) as the best bet in this game. While I typically stay away from the Overs, this one just makes sense. The Heat are injured but Adebayo and Butler are defensive superstars.

I predict lots of points with Allen's dominance on the glass mixed with the shooting and scoring on the Miami roster. The Heat have topped 110 in two straight games and the Cavaliers have topped 110 in six of their last eight outings. They've been impressive offensively.

The Heat scored just 85 the last time these two teams met, but G Duncan Robinson scored zero points in 20 minutes. That will more than likely change Monday. Mix his shooting with Herro's increased dominance, and the Over feels like the better side.

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