Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz odds, picks and prediction
The Dallas Mavericks (15-16) travel to Salt Lake City for a 10:30 p.m. ET Christmas game against the Utah Jazz (22-9) at the Vivint Smart Home Arena. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas has lost three of its past four games including its most recent - a 102-95 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks as a 3.5-point home underdog Thursday.
Since Dec. 10, the Mavs are 3-4 straight-up (SU), 4-3 ATS and 2-5 O/U with the 10th-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-3.8 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Utah has won back-to-back games, beating the Charlotte Hornets 112-102 Monday and the Minnesota Timberwolves 128-116 Thursday.
The Jazz are 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS and 3-3-1 O/U since Dec. 9, with the fourth-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-11.5 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.
The Jazz won and covered in two of three meetings vs. the Mavs last season and the Under was 3-0 in those games.
Mavericks at Jazz odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:23 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks +600 (bet $100 to win $600) | Jazz -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +12.5 (-108) | Jazz +12.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Mavericks at Jazz key injuries
Mavericks
- PG Trey Burke (health and safety protocols) out
- PG Luka Doncic (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Tim Hardaway Jr. (health and safety protocols) out
- PF Maxi Kleber (health and safety protocols) out
- C Kristaps Porzingis (toe) questionable
Jazz
- None
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Mavericks at Jazz odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Jazz 115, Mavericks 104
Money line
PASS because Utah should win handily but at -1000, it's a no-go. Dallas will be without several contributors including offensive centerpiece Doncic, while Utah is at full strength.
Utah has the fourth-highest winning percentage as a home favorite since the start of last season and the Jazz have beaten the Mavs in nine of their last 10 meetings in Utah.
Against the spread
Slight "LEAN" to the MAVERICKS +12.5 (-108) for a small wager because the Jazz have lost four straight ATS, all as double-digit favorites and are only 5-9 ATS when favored by 10 or more points.
Also, Dallas has covered five of its past six games without Doncic in the lineup. In fact, he grades in the 19th percentile of guards in on/off net rating (minus-8.2 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.
However, I can only "LEAN" to the MAVERICKS +12.5 (-108) because they just have too many players on the NBA's COVID-19 list.
Over/Under
"LEAN" to the OVER 214.5 (-107) as a fade against a market that's hammering the Under. The game had a 218.5 O/U line Christmas Eve morning before all the pro-Under money steamed the number down.
On top of that, the Jazz can get a little clumsy with the ball. Utah ranks 20th in offensive turnover rate and 25th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.
Though Dallas is far less talented, its role players getting an opportunity on Christmas will motivate them to crash the offensive glass and to get into passing lanes, both of which lead to easy points.
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