UEFA Champions League: Villarreal vs. Liverpool odds, picks and predictions
Villarreal welcomes Liverpool to El Madrigal Tuesday for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League semifinal. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Villarreal vs. Liverpool odds and lines, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
Villarreal lost 2-0 in the first leg. Liverpool was able to get a strong win, dominating for most of the game.
Led by F Mohamed Salah, Liverpool totaled 19 shots, putting just 5 on goal. Its defense, which has allowed the second-fewest goals in EPL play, held Villarreal without a shot on goal. Liverpool had 73% of possession.
Liverpool got to this point by beating Inter 2-1 on aggregate and Benfica 6-4. The EPL's second-place team averages 2.53 goals per game and allows 0.65 per game.
Villarreal sits 7th on the La Liga table and is also led by a rock-solid defense. It averages 1.59 goals per game while giving up 0.97. Offensively, Villarreal is led by 25-year-old F Arnaut Groeneveld.
Villarreal vs. Liverpool odds, lines, picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:12 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Villarreal +360 (bet $100 to win $360) | Liverpool -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Draw +310
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -155 | U: +122)
Prediction
Liverpool 1, Villarreal 1
Money line (ML)
LEAN to the DRAW +310.
There's absolutely no doubt that Liverpool is the more talented team. However, it hasn't played well when up in a 2-game series and on the road for the second leg.
It was up 2-0 on Inter and lost 1-0. It was up 3-1 on Benfica and drew 3-3. As for Villarreal, it has 2 league losses at home in 17 games.
Sure, Liverpool is a different beast, but it may be looking to possession more than usual which could weaken its desire to push ahead for a winning goal.
Villarreal drew Bayern Munich 1-1 and beat Juventus 3-0 at home. It hasn't played well in league play on the road, but it has been terrific at home in both UEFA action and La Liga action.
I expect that to continue Tuesday as well. I'd rather play the draw than the Villarreal money line, though as I do expect Liverpool to keep the energy and poise high.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 2.5 (+122).
We gave this out for Leg 1 at +120, and it connected with the Liverpool 2-0 win.
I again expect Liverpool's top-tier defense, led by D Virgil van Dijk, one of the world's best defenders, to limit Villarreal. Although Villarreal is better at home, it had zero shots on goal in the first leg.
I do not expect them to score at will despite being better at home. Also, Liverpool has had 3 of its 5 Group Stage games go under 3 goals. At plus-money value, I like the Under here.
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