Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

The red-hot Milwaukee Brewers (18-8) visit the Atlanta Braves (12-15) Friday to start a 3-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Bravesodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee has won 8 of its last 9 games, which includes a 3-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds at home Tuesday-Thursday.

Atlanta prevented a 3-game sweep from the New York Mets by winning their series final 9-2 Friday, and the Braves are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

These teams split last year's season series 2-2, but the Braves had a plus-8 run differential in those meetings. Atlanta defeated Milwaukee in a 2021 National League Division Series 3-1.

Brewers at Braves projected starters

LHP Eric Lauer vs. RHP Jesse Chavez (bullpen start)

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Lauer (2-1, 1.93 ERA) threw a 7 IP-gem in Milwaukee's 9-1 home win over the Chicago Cubs Saturday, allowing 1 HR with 5 H, 1 BB and 11 K. He has a 2.50 FIP, 0.99 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 in 23 1/3 IP over 4 starts this year.

• Lauer got lit up in 3 IP of relief work for 3 ER on 2 HR last season by the Braves in Milwaukee's 6-3 loss in May.
• Lauer lost Game 4 vs. Atlanta 5-4 in 2021 NLDS in 3 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 2 K.

The Braves are likely to run 38-year-old RHP Jesse Chavez out to open the game.

• Chavez's last outing came Tuesday as he threw 27 pitches over 2.1 innings. He allowed 1 hit and struck out 2 in the outing against the New York Mets.
• Atlanta's bullpen ranks 4th in WAR (1.4), 2nd in both FIP (2.91) and hard-hit rate (33.2%) and 3rd in exit velocity (86.7), per FanGraphs.

Brewers at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

• Money line (ML) : Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Braves -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Braves +1.5 (-175)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Brewers at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Brewers 3

Money line

BET the BRAVES (-105) at a cheap price because the Brewers (-115) have beaten up on bad teams but are just 2-3 overall vs. teams with a winning record while Atlanta has played 11 games vs. winning teams (5-6 overall).

Granted, Atlanta has a losing record, but the Braves are the reigning World Series champs and will turn it around as it gets healthier. Braves superstar RF/DH Ronald Acuna Jr. recently returned to the lineup after being sidelined for nearly a year with a knee injury.

Also, the Braves have hit Lauer well in their two meetings, and Atlanta's bullpen is one of the best in baseball.

GIMME the BRAVES (-105).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Braves +1.5 (-180) is out of my price range, and I'm not confident enough in Atlanta to take its alternate RL.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-120) because the Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 Brewers-Braves meetings, Lauer has outstanding pitching peripherals to support his strong basic numbers, and Atlanta's bullpen is elite.

However, Milwaukee's lineup is hitting closer to its potential after a very disappointing 2021, and the Braves are going to bust out of their hitting slumber eventually.

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