NBA

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies (1-2) hope to even their Western Conference semifinals playoff series with the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (2-1) Monday. Game 4 at Chase Center is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State crushed Memphis 142-112 in Game 3 Saturday thanks to a 73.2% effective field-goal rate by the Warriors. PG Steph Curry scored a team-high 30 points on 50.0% shooting (7-for-14 from the field), while going 14-for-14 from the foul line.

Memphis PG, and 2021-22 Most Improved Player, Ja Morant is averaging a series-best 38.3 points on 62.3% true shooting (.506/.433/.857) with 6.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists and a plus-17 net rating.

However, the major storyline is Morant's knee injury (and the controversy surrounding it), which may force him to miss Game 4.

The Grizzlies are 6-4 straight up (SU) and 7-3 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Warriors in their last 10 meetings with and the total is 5-5 Over/Under (O/U) is 5-5 in those contests.

Grizzlies at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:17 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Grizzlies +440 (bet $100 to win $440) | Warriors -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
Against the spread: Grizzlies +10.5 (-112) | Warriors -10.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Grizzlies at Warriors key injuries

Grizzlies

PG Ja Morant (knee) doubtful

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (neck) out
SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out

Grizzlies at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 117, Grizzlies 110

Money line

PASS with a "lean" to the Grizzlies (+440) because I like their spread, this is such a fat payout and Memphis has shown it can play without Morant if it needs to.

The Grizzlies were 20-5 in games Morant missed during the regular season and Morant had a minus-3.2 adjusted on/off net rating, which grades out in the 34th percentile of all point guards, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

However, the Warriors were clicking on a championship-level in Game 3 and I cannot talk myself into a Grizzlies (+440) sprinkle.

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Against the spread

BETGRIZZLIES +10.5 (-112) .

They have enough ball-handlers to make up for Morant's potential absence and a backdoor cover is wide open for Memphis at this number.

Memphis gets SG Dillon Brooks back after his Game 3 suspension for a flagrant foul against Payton. Brooks had a team-high plus-8.0 adjusted on/off net rating during the regular season and a plus-7.3 in the playoffs (per CTG).

Between Brooks and SG Desmond Bane, who is leading the Grizzlies in adjusted on/off net rating in these playoffs at plus-33.4 (CTG), Memphis can still execute its offense vs. Golden State's suspect perimeter defense.

Memphis's offensive turnover rate improves when Morant is off the floor and the Grizzlies have a strength-on-weakness edge over the Warriors in ball security. Golden State tends to get a little clumsy with the pill and Memphis is an ultra-aggressive defense that likes to get easy buckets off of turnovers.

This is also a profitable spot for the Grizzlies since they are 3-1 ATS when being spotted 7.5 or more points and 24-17-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.

BETGRIZZLIES +10.5 (-112) for three-fourths of a unit.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 223.5 (-107) because there's been too much line movement from the original total of 227, Golden State is 4-1 O/U in the last 5 games as a home favorite and Memphis is 4-1 O/U in the last 5 games vs. teams with a 60.0% or better winning rate.

But it would make sense for the Grizzlies to slow this game down if Morant is unable to go. A slight majority of the action is on the Over (per VegasInsider.com), so there's a contrarian angle in taking the Under here.

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