Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
The San Diego Padres (27-14) host the Milwaukee Brewers (26-15) Monday for the start of a 3-game series. First pitch at Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Padresodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee had its 3-game win streak snapped Sunday in an 8-2 upset at home to the Washington Nationals but the Brewers are 6-4 overall in their last 10 games.
San Diego is 7-3 in the last 10 games, has won 3 straight series victories and has a current 4-game win streak that includes a 3-game sweep at the San Francisco Giants this past weekend.
The Brewers beat the Padres 5-2 in last year's season series and had a plus-6 run differential in those meetings.
Brewers at Padres projected starters
RHP Adrian Houser vs. RHP Nick Martinez
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Houser is 3-4 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 36 1/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 3-0, at home vs. the Atlanta Braves Tuesday with 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 vs. the Padres: 0-0 with a 1.86 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 3 BB and 6 K across 2 starts.
Martinez is 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 34 2/3 IP over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: No-decision in a 7-5 loss at home to the Chicago Cubs May 11 with 4 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 8 K.
Brewers at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:42 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML) : Brewers -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Padres -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Brewers -1.5 (+165) | Padres +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Brewers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Brewers 3
Money line
LEAN PADRES (-117) because their price is increasing due to sharp line movement, Martinez has the better swing-and-miss rates between the two starters and Houser has struggled on the road.
Martinez's whiff rate grades in the 68th percentile and his chase rate is in the 92nd percentile according to Statcast, while Houser's whiff rate is in the 18th percentile and his chase rate grades in the 41st percentile. Houser also has a 4.95 road xFIP (3.26 xFIP at home) and a 1.6% road K-BB% (13.8% K-BB% at home).
It's only a LEAN PADRES (-117) because the Brewers hit better vs. right-handed pitching and have a more reliable bullpen.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS even though the Brewers are just 4-12 RL as road favorites but that's appropriately accounted for in the pricing of the Padres +1.5 (-205). I'd rather dabble with San Diego's ML and the Under than spend on this pricey RL.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108) because this is a sharp total considering both starters are "bottom-of-the-rotation" guys.
But, Petco Park is 25th in run factor, aka a pitcher-friendly park, and it's going to be a cool night in San Diego, which favors pitching.The Under has cashed in the last 5 Brewers-Padres meetings in San Diego and the Padres are 2-4 O/U in Martinez's 6 starts.
San Diego's lineup has struggled vs. right-handed pitching this season. The Padres rank 22nd in wRC+ (90) and 24th in both wOBA (.290) and hard-hit rate (28.0%) against righties, per FanGraphs.
It's only a lean because we might get a better number closer to the first pitch. Otherwise, the UNDER 7.5 (-108) is my favorite bet in the Brewers-Padres meeting.
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