NBA

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The No. 1 seed Miami Heat hope to keep their season alive when they face the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics Friday at TD Garden in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston leads the best-of-7 series 3-2. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston took control of the series by clobbering Miami 93-80 in Game 4 Wednesday. The Celtics doubled the Heat up 32-16 in the 3rd quarter to key the victory.

Miami SF Jimmy Butler only posted 13 points on 4-for-18 shooting, while Boston SF Jayson Tatum and SG Jaylen Brown combined for 47 points.

The Celtics are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in this series with a plus-8.9 net rating and the Over/Under (O/U) is 3-2.

Heat at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:06 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +330 (bet $100 to win $330) | Celtics -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +8.5 (-110) | Celtics -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 201.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

PG Tyler Herro (groin) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

Celtics

PG Marcus Smart (ankle) questionable
C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

Heat at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 101, Heat 96

Money line

PASS.

The Heat (+330) are too banged up and overmatched, but the Celtics (-450) are way too expensive for an outright bet in a clinch game.

Most of Miami's backcourt rotation is on the injury report, Lowry is shooting just 21.7% in his 3 games played in this series with 8 assists to 7 turnovers. Herro, the Heat's 2nd scoring option, was sidelined with an injury Games 3 and 4.

But Miami is too well-coached and Boston is too reliant on 3-pointers to even think about laying -450 with the Celtics.

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Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +8.5 (-110).

They'll muck Game 6 up and Miami can keep this game within 3 possessions if it hits a couple of momentum-swinging 3-pointers.

Also, the Heat are 21-12-1 ATS following a loss, 15-8 ATS as road underdogs, 17-11 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record and 4-0 ATS when spotted at least 7.5 points.

The backdoor cover is wide-open with Miami desperate to stave off elimination. However, if the Heat's shooting woes continue and the Celtics get quality looks from deep then Boston could bludgeon Miami for a 3rd straight game.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 201.5 (-107) because playoff games become lower scoring as a series winds down and that's especially true for matchups featuring defenses as good as Boston's and Miami's.

Slightly more money is on the Under, whereas more bets have been placed on the Over, per Pregame.com. Typically, it's wiser to follow the money column of the betting splits since professional bettors put up more dough than public bettors.

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