Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions
The Milwaukee Brewers (32-18) meet the Chicago Cubs (19-29) Tuesday at Wrigley Field for the 3rd game of a 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Cubsodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee swept Monday's series-opening doubleheader by a combined score of 10-7 - 7-6 in the opener and 3-1 in the nightcap.
Chicago has lost 3 straight and is 4-6 in its last 10 games, while Milwaukee is on a 3-game winning streak and 6-4 in its last 10.
Season series: Brewers lead 5-3 with a 10-run differential
Brewers at Cubs projected starters
LHP Eric Lauer vs. LHP Justin Steele
Lauer is 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 46 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: 4-3 road win at the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 1 K.
- 2022 vs. the Cubs: One start - a 9-1 home win April 30 - with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 11 K.
Steele is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 35 IP across 9 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 2 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 2 K in 20-5 shellacking at Cincinnati Reds Thursday.
- 2022 vs. the Brewers: 1-1, 2.25 ERA (8 IP, 2 ER), 11 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 2 starts.
Brewers at Cubs odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:09 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML) : Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Brewers -1.5 (+115) | Cubs +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Brewers at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, Brewers 3
Money line
LEAN to the CUBS (+115) only because I prefer Chicago's RL.
There's a suspicious line freeze in the betting market, Milwaukee's lineup struggles both on the road and vs. left-handed pitching and Chicago's bullpen is sneaky good.
More than 70% of the cash is on the Brewers (-140), according to Pregame.com, but that line hasn't budged off the opener. It appears as though the oddsmakers are enticing more pro-Milwaukee action.
The Brewers are 8-9 vs. lefty starters and rank 26th in wRC+, 22nd in wOBA and 18th in BB/K rate against lefties, per FanGraphs. Milwaukee's lineup is 21st in wRC+ and 17th in both wOBA and BB/K rate on the road.
Finally, Milwaukee's pitching staff is one of the best in MLB, but Chicago's bullpen is 1st in xFIP and 2nd in K/BB rate, according to FanGraphs.
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Run line/Against the spread
BETCUBS +1.5 (-140) based on the previous analysis and because the Brewers -1.5 (+115) are 7-15 RL as road favorites, while the Cubs are 22-11 RL as underdogs.
Since Chicago's RL is a tad pricey, RISK 1 unit on CUBS +1.5 (-140) instead of betting to win 1 unit. If your standard wager is $100 then bet that on Chicago's RL to earn a $71.43 profit (some sportsbooks will round off).
Over/Under
PASS.
I "lean" Under 9.5 (-120) because of the strength of both bullpens, Milwaukee's futility vs. left-handed pitching and on the road.
However, the trends point to a high-scoring affair and Wrigley Field is 2nd in park factor, meaning it's extremely hitter-friendly.
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