San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions
The San Diego Padres (30-18) continue their 3-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (27-21) Tuesday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Padres vs. Cardinalsodds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis won the series opener 6-3 Monday with a bulk of the damage done with a pair of 2-run home runs from Cardinals 1B Paul Goldschmidt and 2B Nolan Gorman.
Season series: Cardinals lead 1-0
Padres at Cardinals projected starters
LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Adam Wainwright
Snell is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA (9 IP, 6 ER), 6 H, 2 HR, 5 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB and 7 K in 4-1 home setback to Milwaukee Brewers May 24
- Career vs. Cardinals: 0-0, 2.57 ERA (7 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K in one 2017 start - an eventual 6-4 road loss while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays
Wainwright is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 52 IP across 9 starts.
- Last start: 4-3 home loss Thursday vs. Milwaukee Brewers with 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K
- 2021 vs. the Padres : 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA (10 IP, 8 ER), 15 H, 3 HR, 3 BB and 4 K in 2 starts
Padres at Cardinals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML) : Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cardinals -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Padres +1.5 (-200) | Cardinals -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Padres at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Cardinals 4
Money line
BET a three-fourths unit on the PADRES (+105) because this line is suspiciously low considering starting the pitching matchup and how well the Cardinals (-130) hit lefties.
Roughly 90% of the action is on St. Louis, according to Tipico Sportsbook, but, if anything, the line has moved toward San Diego. Common sense says oddsmakers would adjust the line according to the market movement so the opposite happening raises red flags.
This line freeze is even more suspect because the Cardinals rank 1st in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching at 137 (the 2nd-place team has a 121 wRC+), 1st in wOBA and 5th in BB/K, according to FanGraphs.
Wainwright has awesome basic numbers but grades in the 23rd percentile in chase rate, 1st percentile in whiff rate and in the 40th percentile or worse in expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, per Statcast.
Wainwright's most used pitch is a curveball and Padres 1B Eric Hosmer has a plus-7 run value (RV) vs. curveballs and 3B Manny Machado has a plus-4 RV.
If Wainwright has to be extra cautious with Hosmer and Machado in the middle of San Diego's order, then the rest of the Padres batters should get hittable pitches.
Snell hasn't looked great in his first 2 starts, but his fastball velocity and spin rate are still elite. He should get back to his "top-of-the-rotation" form soon.
Finally, San Diego is 8-4 as a road underdog.
BETPADRES (+105) FOR 0.75 UNITS.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
San Diego +1.5 (-200) is out of my price range, but it should cash. The Padres are 10-2 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-105) only because San Diego's ML is my favorite bet in this game.
San Diego is 14-10-1 O/U on the road, St. Louis is 15-8-2 O/U at home and the head-to-head series is 5-1-1 O/U in the last 7 meetings.
Also, Busch Stadium is more hitter-friendly (ranking 12th in park factor) and the weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the high-80s with double-digit mph winds blowing out to right-center field.
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