NBA

Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Nathan Beighle

Sportsbook Wire

The Dallas Mavericks (34-33) battle the Memphis Grizzlies (39-26) Saturday. Tip from FedEx Forum is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Mavericks vs. Grizzlies odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Mavericks beat the Grizzlies at home 137-96 Oct. 22, covering as a 5.5-point favorite. The Over 219.5 hit in the lone matchup between these teams so far this season.

Dallas has not been great for bettors lately, having covered just 2 of its last 10 games. The Mavs have won just 3 of those 10 outright as well. They are 24-41-2 against the spread (ATS) this season.

The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are 31-33-1 ATS. They are coming off a 131-110 win versus Golden State, covering as a 2.5-point underdog. Memphis is 5-2 ATS over its last 7 and 4-3 straight up in that span.

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Mavericks at Grizzlies odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML) : Mavericks +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Grizzlies -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS) : Mavericks +5.5 (-110) | Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U) : 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mavericks at Grizzlies key injuries

Mavericks

G Luka Doncic (thigh) out
G Kyrie Irving (foot) questionable

Grizzlies

C Steven Adams (knee) out
G Ja Morant (personal) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Mavericks at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 116, Mavericks 107

Moneyline

AVOID.

Dallas is just 12-20 on the road this season. Without Doncic, these odds are justified, and the underdog isn't worth a play at all. Memphis is too pricey to play here as well.

Against the spread

BET GRIZZLIES -5.5 (-110).

The Grizzlies have played well without Morant, covering 2 of the 3 games he's missed. They put a 21-point beatdown on the Warriors at home in their lone home game without Morant.

Players like G Desmond Bane and F Dillon Brooks can and have stepped up. Dallas, on the other hand, has failed to cover 3 in a row and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 and 1-5 ATS in its last 6.

Memphis also ranks No. 1 in opponents' field goal percentage (44.9%), so that defensive tenacity mixed with the absence of Doncic should result in a Grizzlies cover.

Back GRIZZLIES -5.5 (-110).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 223.5 (-110).

Memphis allows the 6th-fewest points per game (112), and the Mavericks play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. The Grizzlies are 2-6-1 O/U in their last 9 games.

Dallas is 4-3-1 O/U in its last 8. The Mavericks play at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA, and the Grizzlies' style should adjust without Morant to be slower as well.

Considering it all, back the UNDER 223.5 (-110).

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