March Madness: Friday's best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog pick and prediction
We are now into Week 2 of the NCAA Tournament. While some favorites were knocked out, it has mostly been a bracket playing to chalk through the first 2 rounds. We'll likely still get a surprise or two as we make our way toward the Final Four. Below, we break down FanDuel Sportsbook's NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Friday's best Sweet 16 underdog bet to cash in on among SportbookWire's expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Prior to Thursday's action, a quarter of the Sweet 16 come from seeds 5-or-higher. Two of the 16 (Clemson, NC State) are from outside the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. Four are -- or were -- tabbed as underdogs of 5½ points or more.
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Friday's NCAA Tournament underdog pick
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:51 p.m. ET.
Gonzaga +5.5 (-110) vs. Purdue – 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)
This game is Friday's 1st Midwest Region semifinal at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, and it features the No. 1 seed Boilermakers against the No. 5 Bulldogs.
Prior to the Tournament much was made of Purdue's past upset losses in the Big Dance -- each when favored by a double-digit margin -- each of the last 2 years. But Purdue has ridden the sensational play of C Zach Edey to easy wins this Tournament over No. 16 Grambling and No. 8 Utah State. The Boilermaker behemoth averaged 26.5 points and 17.5 rebounds on 67.9% shooting in the 2 wins.
Gonzaga has had its offense in really high gear since about mid-January. The Bulldogs are 16-2 and averaging 85.7 points per game since Jan. 18. During that stretch, they have shot 54% from the field and 40.5% from 3-point range. It's the Zags' ability to knock down contested inside buckets and not have to rely on 3's that looms large in this matchup against this Purdue five that is not as dominant in defending the interior as one might assume.
Overall, Purdue is the better defensive team. KenPom ranks the Boilermakers' defensive efficiency at No. 15 in the nation, while the Zags are 44th. But the late-season trend line has Gonzaga closing the gap and of late playing quite well at that end of the floor.
Gonzaga has big bodies inside and depth there as well. Look for the Bulldogs to be a fair play on the money line (currently at +195, would take GU at +205 or better), but there figures to be a high enough probability of a 1-possession game to give bettors solid leverage on GONZAGA +5.5 (-110).
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