Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions
The Philadelphia Phillies (0-1) welcome the Atlanta Braves (1-0) to Citizens Bank Park Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1). Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Braves vs. Philliesodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 1-0
The Braves finished atop the NL East a season ago with a 104-58 record. That was their best season since winning 106 games in 1998. Atlanta finished a strong 52-29 both on the road and at home, and it kicked off its 2024 season with a strong 9-3 win over the Phillies Friday, scoring all 9 in the 7th and 8th innings.
The Phillies were able to capitalize on 6 scoreless innings from ace RHP Zack Wheeler. Philadelphia held the lead for most of the game after a 2-run 5th. With a plethora of strong bats like SS Trea Turner and 1B Bryce Harper, it will again have playoff aspirations, finishing last season 2nd in the NL East with a 90-72 record. The Phillies were 49-32 at home in 2023.
Braves at Phillies projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Fried (8-1, 2.48 ERA) made 14 starts in 2023. He owned a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 77 2/3 innings.
- 2023 road splits: 6-0, 1.71 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 9 ER -- 3 HR), 9 BB, 56 K in 9 starts
- 2023 vs. Phillies (excluding playoffs): No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 7-6 road win in extra innings Sept. 12
Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA) made 32 starts in 2023. He finished the season with a a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.
- 2023 home splits: 6-3, 3.29 ERA (87 2/3 IP, 32 ER -- 20 HR), 28 BB, 97 K in 14 starts
- 2023 vs. Braves (excluding playoffs): 0-0, 3.50 ERA (18 IP, 7 ER -- 3 HR), 4 BB, 20 K in 3 starts
- Philadelphia was 1-2 in his regular-season starts in 2023 vs. Atlanta
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Braves at Phillies odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -134 (bet $134 to win $100) | Phillies +114 (bet $100 to win $114)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+125) | Phillies +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Braves 3
Moneyline
BET PHILLIES (+114).
Prior to the 8th-inning explosion, the Phillies held the Braves to just 2 runs through 7 innings in the series opener. Philadelphia has another strong pitcher on the mound and was significantly better at home than it was on the road last season.
The combination of Turner and Harper going 0 for 7 from the plate again is unlikely, so expect more production from the Philadelphia offense. Atlanta struggled for most of the game and is facing a familiar Nola Saturday.
Expect Philadelphia to come alive, and back PHILLIES (+114).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There's just no real value here.
The Phillies are too expensive to take and not worth the value against a high-octane Braves side. Atlanta has some value with Fried on the mound, but it didn't show enough in the majority of Friday's win to take as a run-line favorite.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8 (-105).
The starting pitchers in the 1st game of the series combined for 11 IP and 2 ER. Nola and Fried are certainly capable of repeating those types of performances. Philadelphia was 39-41-9 O/U at home a season ago.
Take away the top of the 7th inning, when Atlanta scored 7 runs, and there would've been just 5 runs scored Friday. Expect the high-quality pitching to own the spotlight here, and back UNDER 8 (-105).
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