Poll: Obama leads 49%-45%, thanks to women voters

Women voters give President Obama a four-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new poll from Quinnipiac University.

Obama leads Republican challenger Mitt Romney by 49% to 45% among likely voters, thanks largely to a 56%-38% lead among women.

Voters also believe — overwhelmingly — that Obama will win the upcoming set of three debates, Quinnipiac reports, by a margin of 54%-28%.

Obama and Romney have their first face-to-face meeting Wednesday night in Denver.

Some good news for Romney in the Quinnipiac survey: He has a slight lead among independent voters, 47%-45%.

Quinnipiac also spotlighted another demographic group: White voters who back Romney by 53%-42%, though that matches Obama performance in the 2008 election.

"President Barack Obama won only about 43% of the white vote in 2008, so his current standing among whites tracks his earlier winning performance," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "If the president can match or exceed his 2008 showing among whites it will be difficult to impossible for Romney to win."

Obama has made women a key part of his political coalition, emphasizing issues ranging from abortion rights to pay equity to health coverage for contraception; this new Quinnipiac poll bolsters that strategy.

Brown added: "It is also very difficult to win an election when you are getting shellacked among women, the group that makes up about half the electorate."