First, a reminder: the Emmys 2024 haven’t actually happened yet. The Emmy Awards held this past January were in fact honoring TV shows released between June 2022 and May 2023; they were handed out in 2024 only because the 2023 WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes pushed the ceremony out of its usual September perch. So: Now that that’s out of the way, which TV series should we expect to walk away with nominations for the actual Emmys 2024? VF’s experts have educated guesses for every major category.

COMEDY SERIES

Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Gentlemen
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Reservation Dogs
What We Do in the Shadows

Five returning nominees here feel fairly locked in. We’ll start with reigning champ The Bear, which—while a bit more dramatic than your average comedy-series contender—has swept races not just at the Emmys, but at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and various industry guilds. It’s the front-runner. After a two-year hiatus, Max’s Hacks returned triumphant and has emerged as the primary challenger with its series-best season three. Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building have been Emmy mainstays for their first seasons too, and will comfortably return to the fold for their own strong third seasons. Curb Your Enthusiasm meanwhile is up for its final season more than 20 years after its first nod in this category.

After that, things get tricky. The big remaining streamers each have one newbie they’d love to sneak in, with each carrying obvious advantages and disadvantages. Apple TV+ has Palm Royale, the starriest and most heavily marketed of the bunch. But it’s designated “rotten” on Rotten Tomatoes and faded in visibility over the spring. Prime Video’s I’m a Virgo was severely underseen—and aired a full year ago—but ranked among the best-reviewed shows in 2023. The best-positioned may be Netflix’s The Gentlemen, which, while not an obvious awards play on its face—Guy Ritchie hasn’t exactly been in the Academy’s conversation ever—was a success for the streamer that critics also embraced.

Can all three freshmen get in? Those first two face especially tough hurdles, especially when past nominee What We Do in the Shadows is a proven hit with the TV Academy, and another acclaimed FX half-hour, Reservation Dogs, is on its last chance for its final season—after being completely snubbed above the line until now, no less. Maybe, given the scattered nature of the field, enough voters have come around for Reservation Dogs to sneak in. —David Canfield

ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Theo James, The Gentlemen
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

This category is straightforward. Jeremy Allen White will be back for The Bear’s second season, primed to win once again. The only other 2023 nominee on the ballot is Only Murders in the Building’s Martin Short, so expect him to return as well. His costar, Steve Martin, fell off after being nominated for season one, but I’d bet on him finding his way back as a nominee—along with Curb’s Larry David, also snubbed for his most recent season—given the lack of alternatives. The most viable of them is The Gentlemen’s Theo James, seeing as he’s fresh off his first Emmy nod for The White Lotus and The Gentlemen found a significant audience. You could argue past Emmy winner Jharrel Jerome stands a shot for his terrific work in I’m a Virgo, or that Kelsey Grammer could get checked off for the Frasier revival, but I’m not convinced either series is on the TV Academy’s radar enough to put their leads ahead of a rather obvious five. —DC

ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Maya Rudolph, Loot
Jean Smart, Hacks
Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale

We’ve got a race here, as three of the presumed nominees are coming off wins for their respective roles. Jean Smart won for Hacks two years ago, before taking off the last cycle. In her place, Quinta Brunson took home the gold for Abbott Elementary. Ayo Edebiri won the supporting-actress prize for The Bear’s first season, but this time around is bumping up to lead. All three are certain at least to make it to nominations. Beyond them? Even when Only Murders was at its hottest, voters snubbed Selena Gomez, so although this is her best chance, it remains a climb. It’s unclear just how many Academy members watched—and for that matter, liked—Apple’s relevant contenders, Palm Royale and Loot, but both Kristen Wiig and Maya Rudolph are Academy favorites. Their charming, consistent runs on the campaign trail these last few months may just be enough to get them into the race. For those looking outside the box, I’d hope Netflix’s push for Girls5Eva nets Renee Elise Goldsberry the nod she’s been unfairly denied thus far. It’s one of the best comic performances on TV. —DC

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Lionel Boyce, The Bear
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Matty Matheson, The Bear
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Oliver Platt, The Bear
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary

Last year at the Emmys, The White Lotus got four supporting-actor nominations and five supporting-actress nominations. Succession got four of its supporting men recognized. When these voters love a show, they tend to recognize as much of its cast as possible. Which leads me to this category, and its only real tension: Just how many Bear actors can they fit in?

Ebon Moss-Bachrach won this award last year, so he’s a lock. I suspect that Oliver Platt is too, coming off a guest nomination for his role in season one. Lionel Boyce shined in a standalone season-two episode, enough to get him in, and then if things get crazy (as they probably will), the fan-favorite Matty Matheson can find enough support as well. Who else is in the running? Tyler James Williams could certainly nab a third consecutive nomination, even as Abbott lost some key noms last year and will need to maintain momentum. Many other past nominees are in the hunt, but Paul W. Downs is well-positioned to get his first acting nod for Hacks over costar (and season-one nominee) Carl Clemons-Hopkins, given the former’s relative prominence in the show. And while a vet like Ricky Martin (Palm Royale) or Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building) could surely pop, 2022 nominee Bowen Yang feels so solidified as the breakout SNL cast member of the moment that he could have enough fans to push past them. —DC

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Abby Elliott, The Bear
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear

It’s hard to see how this race will make room for any show beyond the biggest comedy heavyweights: The Bear, Hacks, Abbott Elementary, and Only Murders in the Building. That last series added an Oscar-winning legend to its company last season in Meryl Streep, and the fact that she got to play a fun, slippery role only cements her chances here. Abbott’s duo of Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James have been nominated for both seasons one and two, and there’s no reason to suspect that will change this time around—though if voters throw a curveball, veteran character actor Lisa Ann Walter is still seeking her first nod and has been working the trail hard. Hacks, similarly, has a lock here in Hannah Einbinder, but Meg Stalter had a superb season as well. If voters really go all-out, they could find a spot for her. Yet the primary question here, again, is just how big The Bear has gotten with the Television Academy. Abby Elliott arguably has the most central role of its supporting actresses, while Liza Colón-Zayas its most beloved. But watch out for new cast addition Molly Gordon as well. Emmy voters don’t usually care about spreading the wealth. —DC

WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

Abbott Elementary — Quinta Brunson for “Career Day”
The Bear — Christopher Storer & Joanna Calo for “Fishes”
Hacks — Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs & Jen Statsky for “Bulletproof”
Only Murders in the Building — John Hoffman & Ben Smith for “Opening Night”
What We Do in the Shadows — Jake Bender & Zach Dunn for “Pride Parade”
The Gentlemen — Guy Ritchie & Matthew Read for “Refined Aggression”

The three most recent winners of this category all submitted conservatively, with Abbott Elementary, The Bear, and Hacks only featuring one script on the ballot and thereby preventing vote-splitting. All should comfortably return to the race. I think the same will be true of What We Do in the Shadows, which, while not as strong of a contender overall, has long been a favorite of the writing branch—a few years ago, it received three nominations here—and its supporters can put all of their might behind its sole submission. From there, it’s logical to expect an Only Murders episode to make the cut again (two are on the ballot), since it’s a strong player overall and has not missed a writing nod yet.

This tastemaking branch would ordinarily seem primed to honor Reservation Dogs’ final season, but sadly, the great FX series included over half of its episodes on the writing ballot—it feels inevitable that votes will be too split between them for any to get across the finish line. Instead, expect to see a payoff for the smarter strategy of newbies like The Gentlemen or Palm Royale, which are only competing for their (heavily campaigned) pilots. —DC

DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

The Bear — Christopher Storer for “Fishes”
The Bear — Ramy Youssef for “Honeydew”
Curb Your Enthusiasm — Jeff Schaffer for “No Lessons Learned”
Frasier — James Burrows for “The Good Father”
The Gentlemen — Guy Ritchie for “Refined Aggression”
Hacks — Lucia Aniello for “Bulletproof”

You can probably check both Bear submissions off here: “Fishes” was the most talked-about episode of the year, and Ramy Youssef’s delicate work on the Marcus-focused, Copenhagen-set “Honeydew” provides an excellent, mellow contrast. Hacks won this category a few years back, and Lucia Aniello is back on the ballot, solely repping the show, for the superb season-three finale. From there, I wonder about shows like Frasier and Curb Your Enthusiasm. Both were mainstays here long, long ago—and, for very different reasons, they’re returning with their best chances in years. The former, newly revived series will benefit from the Academy’s mandate that at least one comedy-directing nomination go to a multi-camera sitcom, since Frasier has stronger name recognition than its competition (and the director on the ballot, James Burrows, is an Emmy-winning legend). Curb, meanwhile, has its buzzy series finale in its corner. While you could look to a favorite like Abbott or Only Murders to fill the last spot, finally, I suspect the directing branch will take a liking to Guy Ritchie, a stylistic filmmaker who puts his stamp on The Gentlemen’s pilot. —DC

DRAMA SERIES

Shōgun
The Gilded Age
The Morning Show
The Curse
The Crown
Slow Horses
Loki
Mr. and Mrs. Smith

In some ways, this category is seven series competing for second place. Now that FX’s smash-hit, critically adored Shōgun has been renewed for a second season and—properly, morally—put itself in regular series competition rather than in limited, there’s probably no beating that juggernaut. But some shows will try! We had a hard time deciding if Mr. and Mrs. Smith will be among the contenders or if a brash video-game sensation like Fallout would get in there instead. Both are from Amazon, and both would be uncommon nominees in a year not affected by the strikes. But we’re betting that sexy romance will win out over apocalyptic snark—which is maybe not the right call to make in 2024. —Richard Lawson

ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nathan Fielder, The Curse
Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith
Cosmo Jarvis, Shōgun
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun
Dominic West, The Crown

Succession is dead and gone, leaving the leading actor in a drama series category almost gobsmackingly wide open. Last year’s nominees Bob Odenkirk, Pedro Pascal, and Jeff Bridges are all out of the running this go-round as well. Enter FX’s Shōgun, which is primed to get nods for legendary Japanese actor Hiroyuki Sanada and relative newcomer Cosmo Jarvis. Beyond Shōgun, you can expect two former Emmy nominees to crack this category: Donald Glover for his sexy and stylish turn as one half of a spy couple on Amazon+ series Mr. and Mrs. Smith and Dominic West for playing Prince Charles in the wake of Diana’s death on the final season of Netflix’s The Crown. Although he was ignored for season one of your dad’s favorite show, Slow Horses, Gary Oldman’s slovenly Jackson Lamb may also make the cut this year—never count out an Oscar winner deigning to appear on television. For that pesky sixth spot, we’re going to count on the allure of Oscar rubbing off on Nathan Fielder, who shows never-before-seen range with his devastating and cringeworthy performance as the ultimate beta husband on Showtime’s The Curse. —Chris Murphy

ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Maya Erskine, Mr. and Mrs. Smith
Anna Sawai, Shōgun
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Emma Stone, The Curse

No one is coming in hotter to this Emmy season than Emma Stone, who just won an Oscar for Poor Things and also has been walking red carpets for her most recent film Kinds of Kindness. She’ll land her first Emmy nomination this year for playing an aspiring HGTV host in the cringeworthy satire The Curse. Shōgun’s Anna Sawai is also a lock for her first Emmy nom after the FX show’s very favorable reception, which largely hinges on her performance. The other five slots are more in flux, but we expect Imelda Staunton to earn a slot for playing Queen Elizabeth II in the final season of The Crown, and Carrie Coon to land a nom for playing the relentless social climber at the center of The Gilded Age. It’s possible that The Morning Show could land two spots, with both Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon being nominated again—but we think that only Aniston will land in the final six this year, with Maya Erskine taking the final slot for her excellent portrayal of one half of an assassin couple in the well-liked Mr. and Mrs. Smith. —Rebecca Ford

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Khalid Abdalla, The Crown
Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Jon Hamm, The Morning Show
Takehiro Hira, Shōgun
Nathan Lane, The Gilded Age
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown

Last year’s nominees came entirely from Succession and The White Lotus. With the supporting-actor category wiped clean of those contenders, expect voters to turn toward a mix of old favorites (Billy Crudup won this category in 2020, while Jonathan Pryce’s successor Tobias Menzies earned a trophy for playing Prince Philip in 2021) and exciting newbies from the breakout FX series Shōgun. Tadanobu Asano and Hira feel like the most likely nominees from that sprawling historical drama, but don’t count out Tokuma Nishioka, as the Academy has no problem bestowing nominations on all the supporting men on a single show. Hamm and Lane, both perpetual Emmys bridesmaids before winning their first trophies in 2015 and 2022, respectively, are standouts in their own starry ensembles. Khalid Abdalla’s Dodi Fayed, who proves to be a heartbreaking force in Princess Diana’s devastating final moments on The Crown, rounds out the lineup. —Savannah Walsh

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Moeka Hoshi, Shōgun
Greta Lee, The Morning Show
Lesley Manville, The Crown
Fumi Nikaido, Shōgun
Cynthia Nixon, The Gilded Age

This category is where we will find out just how much the TV Academy likes Shōgun, The Crown, The Gilded Age, and The Morning Show. Each series has several strong contenders that could lead to multiple nominations in this seven-slot list. Shōgun should easily earn two spots for Moeka Hoshi and Fumi Nikaido, for a pair of emotional performances both centered on motherhood. From there, it becomes a bit murkier. Could both Christine Baranski and Cynthia Nixon get in for their twisted sisters on The Gilded Age? We think so. But Baranski, with the showier performance, might be the only one to land a spot. The Crown’s Elizabeth Debicki is a lock for her measured performance as Princess Diana, but will there be room for her Crown colleague Lesley Manville? Perhaps, and it would be Manville’s first-ever Emmy nomination. As for The Morning Show, the contenders include Greta Lee, Nicole Beharie, Julianna Margulies, Karen Pittman, and Holland Taylor. But Lee has the advantage as a scene-stealer who is also coming off a hot Oscar season for her breakout performance in Past Lives, so we’re betting she takes a spot over the others. —RF

WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

The Crown — Peter Morgan for “Sleep, Dearie Sleep”
The Curse — Nathan Fielder & Benny Safdie for “Land of Enchantment”
Fallout — Geneva Robertson-Dworet & Graham Wagner for “The End”
Shōgun — Rachel Kondo & Caillin Puente for “Crimson Sky”
Shōgun — Rachel Kondo & Justin Marks for “Anjin”
Slow Horses — Will Smith for “Negotiating With Tigers”

None of the shows nominated in this category last year are eligible this time around. That puts a show like The Crown in a particularly weird position, since, while the branch just snubbed it altogether, they have far fewer familiar options now. By default, The Crown feels slightly better-positioned than the rest of the bunch—especially since Peter Morgan’s series finale is one of its two submissions and makes for an easy send-off nod (even if the other contending episode, the Princess Margaret-focused “Ritz,” was better-received overall). Shōgun is all over this ballot, with more than half of its episodes included, which could either go very well—given its strength in the field, voters may just vote for…all of them?—or lead to detrimental vote-splits. I’ll predict somewhere in between, with its pilot and its standout penultimate episode, “Crimson Sky,” making the cut. Of the other obvious options, Fallout only has its pilot on the ballot and is definitely strong enough to get that through.

If a Shōgun wave does not materialize, how to fill out this group of six? Even if The Gilded Age and The Morning Show finally break out with voters overall, they lack significant writers’ support—while both got SAG ensemble nominations, for instance, they were both snubbed by the WGA earlier this year. This branch leans more indie, and a little weirder. That bodes well for WGA nominee The Curse and Apple TV+’s critical hit Slow Horses, both of which submitted single episodes. And don’t count out freshmen streaming hits Mr. and Mrs. Smith or 3 Body Problem, either of which could overperform with voters. —DC

DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

The Crown — Stephen Daldry for “Sleep, Dearie Sleep”
The Crown — Christian Schwochow for “Dis-Moi Oui”
Fallout — Jonathan Nolan for “The End”
Fallout — Clare Kilner for “The Past”
Shōgun — Frederick E.O. Toye for “Crimson Sky”
Shōgun — Jonathan Van Tulleken for “Anjin”

Shōgun faces the same conundrum here as in writing; there are so many submissions that it’s tough to tell whether they’ll cancel each other out or collectively dominate. Again, I’m assuming the middle ground and predicting the same two episodes will advance. The show faces stiff competition from fellow breakout newbie Fallout—since Prime Video’s blockbuster only has two episodes on the ballot and got more attention for its style—and the final season of The Crown, with past winner Stephen Daldry back in the race for the series finale. Can that show get a second episode nominated as well with the Diana-centric “Dis-Moi Oui”? It’s possible; a lot depends on which of the other eligible freshmen, from Mr. and Mrs. Smith to 3 Body Problem (both of which submitted multiple episodes, a hindrance), are best-liked by directors. As of now, there’s no way to know. —DC

LIMITED SERIES

Baby Reindeer
Fargo
Lessons in Chemistry
Ripley
True Detective: Night Country

Following Netflix’s win in this category last year, with Beef, the streamer is again a limited-series lock with Baby Reindeer, the surprise sensation from Scottish actor-comedian Richard Gadd. (That the critically acclaimed series is now the subject of a controversy involving the real-life “Martha” only helps, since that means it’s fresh in the minds of voters.) Another Netflix contender seemingly primed for contention is Ripley, Steven Zaillian’s adaptation of Patricia Highsmith’s The Talented Mr. Ripley starring Andrew Scott. FX’s Fargo, which won the category Emmy for its first season a decade ago, is coming off one of its strongest seasons since, starring Juno Temple as a homemaker with a mysterious past and Jon Hamm as a prairie preacher and sheriff. Apple TV+’s charming Lessons in Chemistry adaptation, starring Brie Larson and some dreamy ’50s production design, is a shoo-in, as is True Detective: Night Country, the best-reviewed season of the HBO anthology series so far. Potential upsets could come in the form of HBO’s The Sympathizer, FX’s Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, and Amazon’s Expats. —Julie Miller

ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer
Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
Jon Hamm, Fargo
David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Andrew Scott, Ripley

It’s a group of rule-breakers versus one noble do-gooder, as men defined by their transgressions go up against one true-life historical figure credited with bringing justice to the old West. The latter is David Oyelowo’s Bass Reeves, an escaped slave turned gunslinger who became the first Black US Marshal to serve in the untamed frontier west of the Mississippi River. Jon Hamm’s fictional Sheriff Roy Tillman from season five of Fargo—a murderer and thief protected by his own badge—is another creature entirely, despite also being a lawman (of sorts). The Mad Men star could bring home an acting Emmy for sheer despicableness in this role—a wife-beating, self-righteous, murder-sanctioning blowhard who is sanctimonious to boot. Richard Gadd’s flailing comedian in Baby Reindeer indulges his stalker because he’s nourished by her attention, and Tom Hollander’s venomous Truman Capote traffics in soul-corroding gossip as social capital. But among these men, no one is as sociopathic as Andrew Scott’s inveterate scammer and eponymous serial killer in Ripley. It’s anyone’s race right now, but apart from Oyelowo, it’s largely a contest between the best of the worst. —Anthony Breznican

ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country

Nicole Kidman, Expats

Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry


Juno Temple, Fargo
Sofia Vergara, Griselda

It’s pretty wild that we’re looking at a group of contenders that includes Oscar-winning A-listers like Nicole Kidman, Kate Winslet, Jodie Foster, and Jessica Lange—and there’s not enough room in this crowded category for them all to be nominated. Foster is the one of that quartet who feels like a lock, for her standout performance as a prickly detective in True Detective: Night Country. Brie Larson, another Oscar winner in this race, will easily land a nomination for the adaptation of the popular novel Lessons in Chemistry. Sofia Vergara (who was nominated for four acting Emmys for Modern Family but never won) has caught the TV Academy’s attention for her dramatic turn in Griselda, and Juno Temple (nominated three times for Ted Lasso but never won) should land a spot for Fargo. The fifth and final spot could go to Naomi Watts, who vividly portrayed socialite and former magazine editor Babe Paley in Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, or perhaps Winslet will slip in for her strong performance in an otherwise not-so-liked show The Regime. But I’m going to guess Kidman, who won this category in 2017 for Big Little Lies, is given the final spot for her harrowing performance as a mother whose child has gone missing in the cinematic adaptation Expats. —Rebecca Ford

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers
Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer
Hugh Grant, The Regime
John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country
Joe Keery, Fargo
Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry
Treat Williams, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans

It feels a bit ironic that the actor from The Sympathizer, a series that critiques American perspectives on the Vietnam War, who is most likely to get Emmy recognition is the only white guy in the cast. Yet Robert Downey Jr.’s role on that series is tailor-made for awards recognition: the newly-minted Oscar winner plays not one, not two, but four separate roles, all various faces of American imperialism. He’ll be joined by a varied crew of actors from other shows, including the sentimental choice: Treat Williams, who died in a motorcycle accident shortly after playing TV titan Bill Paley in Feud. If the TV Academy really loves Fargo, a few of these slots may go to down-ballot possibilities like Sam Spruell (who plays ageless assassin Ole Munch) or Lamorne Morris (as upright and noble police officer Witt Farr). But it’s just as likely that they’ll choose to spread the wealth around. —Hillary Busis

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Aja Naomi King, Lessons in Chemistry
Dakota Fanning, Ripley
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Fargo
Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer
Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country
Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer
Sandra Oh, The Sympathizer

Given the success of Baby Reindeer, this Emmy seems like Jessica Gunning’s to lose, following her sympathetic portrayal of stalker Martha. She will likely have a costar in the race: Nava Mau, who would be the first Latina trans nominee in the category. Also expect a nod for Oscar nominee Jennifer Jason Leigh, who gave a commanding performance in Fargo’s most recent iteration. Thirteen-time Emmy nominee Sandra Oh will probably earn her fourteenth nod for her role on The Sympathizer. (She was most recently nominated as a lead actress for Killing Eve.) Kali Reis, the professional boxer turned actor who gave a compelling performance on True Detective: Night Country, is a strong contender for the category. Other deserving actors could receive their first Emmy nomination here—like Aja Naomi King for Lessons in Chemistry, Dakota Fanning for Ripley, and Sarayu Blue for Expats. But there are plenty of worthy actors to consider who seem like less likely contenders, including Lily Gladstone, fresh off her Oscar campaign for Killers of the Flower Moon and her role in Under the Bridge; the always fabulous Gillian Anderson for playing Emily Maitlis in Scoop; and Chloë Sevigny for playing C.Z. Guest in Feud: Capote vs. the Swans. —JM

WRITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES

Baby Reindeer — Richard Gadd
Fargo — Noah Hawley for “The Tragedy of the Commons”
Lessons in Chemistry — Lee Eisenberg for “Introduction to Chemistry”
Ripley — Steven Zaillian
True Detective: Night Country — Issa López for “Part 6”
The Sympathizer — Park Chan-wook and Don McKellar for “Death Wish”

For the most part, this category tends to line up with the best limited-series race (with last year being an intriguing exception, as only two shows managed the overlap). I suspect we’ll be going back to normal this year. Baby Reindeer, Fargo, True Detective, and Lessons in Chemistry are our overall front-runners, and each made a single submission here, either for the entire series (in the case of Baby Reindeer, because Richard Gadd wrote the whole thing) or a standout episode. (In the case of True Detective, which had a writers room, it’s the finale, penned by showrunner Issa López.) Ripley also appears strong, given that Steven Zaillian is an Oscar-winning favorite of his peers. Beyond those five, the writers tend to go out on a limb for smaller, better shows—and so my hope is that they recognize The Sympathizer in the same way they nominated its beloved networkmate Station Eleven two years ago. Of course, don’t be surprised if an overall embrace of the likes of Masters of the Air, Fellow Travelers, or Feud extends to this category instead. —DC

DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES

Baby Reindeer — Weronika Tofilska for “Episode 4”
Fargo — Noah Hawley for “The Tragedy of the Commons”
Fargo — Sylvain White for “Linda”
Lessons in Chemistry — Sarah Adina Smith for “Her and Him”
Ripley — Steven Zaillian
True Detective: Night Country — Issa López

Expect roughly the same deal as the limited-series writing race. Baby Reindeer has its darkest, most acclaimed episode on the ballot, as does Lessons in Chemistry (for which Sarah Adina Smith has already won a DGA Award). The latter show actually has two episodes on the ballot, as does Fargo, and either or both could see them get in collectively. But there will be great respect for Issa López and Steven Zaillian helming the entirety of True Detective: Night Country and Ripley, respectively, to say nothing of the similarly gorgeous effort by Lulu Wang on Expats—a project that’s a bit more of an Emmys question mark overall. It’d be a shame too, if the most visually original pilot of the year, Park Chan-wook’s The Sympathizer, is ignored, but this field may have gotten too crowded too quickly. —DC

COMPETITION PROGRAM

The Amazing Race
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Survivor
Top Chef
The Traitors

The Academy has long been habitual when it comes to this category. Case in point: earlier this year, RuPaul’s Drag Race earned its fifth Emmy win for best competition program after previously taking the trophy four years in a row between 2018 and 2021. (Host RuPaul Charles is also a perennial favorite—with 14 wins, he’s the most awarded host for a reality or competition program in Emmy history.) The one outlier in recent years was Lizzo’s Watch Out For The Big Grrrls, which won for its freshman season in 2022. That means category stalwarts like The Amazing Race, Survivor, and Top Chef may be joined by newer series like The Traitors, which is hot off a hit second season. The same could be said for new shows like Squid Game: The Challenge or The Golden Bachelor—but unsavory headlines related to both projects could prove as barriers to entry here. Plus, any new blood will have to face off against The Voice—another regular presence in this category that could very well repeat. —SW

REALITY HOST

RuPaul Charles, RuPaul’s Drag Race
Alan Cumming, The Traitors
Kristen Kish, Top Chef
Nicole Byer, The Big Nailed It! Baking Challenge
Jeff Probst, Survivor

RuPaul is a mainstay in this category by now, as is Nicole Byer. Alan Cumming is beloved in his role as the US host of his competition show (though we think that Claudia Winkleman, host of the original UK version, is the superior emcee). They’re probably all locks. The other two slots are more of a mystery. We’re guessing that in-house scandal will keep the Queer Eye folks off the list this year, leaving room for Jeff Probst, who has overseen a cultural revival of Survivor some 46 seasons in. Kristen Kish, who took over for Padma Lakshmi after 19 seasons, would be a nice recognition of someone rising to a difficult task and changing the tone of the show in the process. —RL

SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Saturday Night Live

It’s a two-horse race between two heavily awarded series: Saturday Night Live and Last Week Tonight with John Oliver. The former dominated the outstanding variety talk series category so completely that the Emmy gods voted last year to move it into this category instead. The shakeup didn’t stop Last Week Tonight’s winning streak, as it wound up victorious over Saturday Night Live and A Black Lady Sketch Show. With A Black Lady Sketch Show unfortunately off the air, Saturday Night Live and Last Week Tonight will most likely be free to duke it out and see who will prevail in one-on-one combat. May the best scripted variety series win. —CM

VARIETY TALK SERIES

The Daily Show
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Late Night with Seth Meyers
Late Show with Stephen Colbert

Imagine this: You’re a late show host who isn’t named Jon Stewart or John Oliver. You finally have a chance to be recognized at the Emmys after nearly two decades of The Daily Show, then Last Week Tonight winning every single year (with one brief pause to honor Stephen Colbert for the final season of The Colbert Report)…and then Stewart returns from retirement to sit at The Daily Show’s desk once more. Even if Stewart’s only traveling in from New Jersey once a week, that’s still enough to make him and The Daily Show a front-runner in this category once more, much to the likely consternation of Jimmy Kimmel, Seth Meyers, and Colbert. (And especially Jimmy Fallon, who’s unlikely to even get a nod this year.) What’s more, any of those non–Daily Show hosts could very well be booted out of the category by the likes of John Mulaney (whose six-day-long Netflix experiment Everybody’s in L.A. has campaigned hard) or even Hot Ones, a YouTube phenomenon vying for Emmys for the first time. The old guard can probably manage to hold onto their nomination slots this year—but either way, Meyers may not be the only Strike Force Five member who ends up day-drinking on nominations morning. —HB